It's traditional for the Florida Gators and the Florida State Seminoles to play each other towards the end of their non-conference dockets. In this case, both are playing their last non-conference games of the year on Tuesday in what could end up being a heck of a showdown.
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HOW THE FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Seminoles simply cannot shoot the ball from long range, and as a result, they have to make sure they don't get into this run and gun game with the Gators.
FSU might be averaging 82.9 points per game this year, but we know in games like this, scoring in the 60s is going to be the norm for a defense first team.
The Seminoles have to always take advantage of their size to cover against relatively comparable teams. They're outdoing foes by 12.1 rebounds per game thus far this year, and that's why they've been able to win comparable games against VCU and Mississippi State.
FSU has picked up at least 10 offensive rebounds in 10 of its 11 games this year, and if that continues in this one and those boards convert into easy second chance points, the garnet and gold should have no problems coming on the road and beating the Gators.
HOW THE FLORIDA GATORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
History will tell you that the best way to beat the Seminoles is to spread them out across the floor when they're on defense. Florida State always plays tight man-to-man defense, and when it is forced to switch into zones to guard the perimeter, that's when things tend to open up just a bit on the inside.
However, the Gators are going to have to make some shots from the outside for that to happen. Otherwise, the Seminoles will continue to chase Kasey Hill and Dorian Finney-Smith around the perimeter until they prove they can knock down shots from the outside.
Florida is shooting just 28.6 percent from long range this year, and if you just look at the Power 5 foes, that number is under 25 percent.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
There generally isn't a lot separating these two teams, but this time around, we think there's clearly a superior club. Florida might've done a respectable job of hanging in there against Michigan State on the road, but games against Miami and Purdue were both laughers from the start.
Granted, Florida State isn't nearly as good as Purdue or Michigan State, but it certainly has all of the pieces in place to make a nice run here in March. The Seminoles could quietly be headed for a Top 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament this year, and a win in this game is paramount to finish off what has been a pretty darn good non-conference season.
Expect to see Malik Beasley and Xavier Rathan-Mayes take over this game offensively, and when that happens, the Seminoles will be able to easily do the rest on the defensive end of the court to pick up to secure a double-digit win in Gainesville.
Florida State 72, Florida 61
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