The scrappy team from Fort Myers is hoping that Dunk City is back in the Sunshine State as the No.14 seeded Florida Gulf Coast Eagles will look to bring the high-flying antics that brought them national fame in 2013 back to prominence as they get set to take on the No. 3 seed Florida State Seminoles on Thursday in Orlando. Can this FGCU team go on another improbably run?
At 9:20 p.m. ET, tune into TNT for live television coverage of this NCAA basketball game on Thursday, March 16, 2017, at the Amway Center in Orlando, FL.
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While not a 1-16 or 2-15 matchup, this is still a rather lopsided game and the spread reflects that, opening at -12.
A loss against Notre Dame despite being the slight favorites and failure to cover the spread in a win against Virginia Tech, both in the ACC Tournament, have put a bit of a recent damper on the numbers for a team that’s otherwise been very strong ATS all season long.
Those last two games, however, cannot be ignored as FSU is 12-3-1 ATS in home games, but they’re just 2-4 ATS on a neutral floor and 3-5-1 ATS on the road. That could come into play on Thursday as the Seminoles will be heavy favorites against the 14-seed.
Speaking of them, the Eagles haven’t played many games with a published spread coming out of the Atlantic Coast, but they’ve played the bigger conferences tough when given the chance.
Key Stat
Florida Gulf Coast cannot win on sheer pace of play and dynamic dunks as they did in 2013. Instead, they’ll need to play a cleaner game and capitalize on its chances with a high offensive efficiency. Additionally, this team will need to maximize its chances and that means winning the battle against the boards and in the turnover margin.
The Seminoles are the better ranked team in terms of turnover margin at 2.8 ranking No. 27 in the nation. Florida Gulf Coast still averages a positive turnover margin, but at just 0.5, it’s well below FSU’s numbers.
As to offensive efficiency, Florida State has the edge there, too, with the No. 17 most efficient offense in college basketball at 1.116. Florida Gulf Coast, of course, isn’t bad at No. 36 and 1.094, but that’s come against weaker defensive competition than FSU has had to deal with in the ACC.
Last Meeting
These teams aren’t exactly strangers. It’s been a couple years, but the Seminoles and Eagles went head-to-head in the first round of the NIT back in 2014.
Here in the Big Dance, there’s a lot more riding on the line and these two teams’ rosters look considerably different.
After the 2013 miracle run by Florida Gulf Coast, they failed to get a NCAA bid the next year in what was a down year for Florida State. In that first round matchup, the Seminoles were victorious, winning 58-53.
Interestingly, the Seminoles are in their first NCAA Tournament since that matchup while this is the Eagle’s second straight bid; though last year was in a No. 16 seed matchup that ultimately advanced them to get swept away easily by North Carolina in the 1-16 contest.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
The style of play that allowed the Eagles to surprise the nation in 2013 isn’t exactly the same Florida Gulf Coast employs. They’ve played at a slower pace this season and are much more reliant on the three-pointer rather than their up-tempo, high-flying antics from a few years back.
The Eagles can still drive to the basket from time-to-time and do get their share of second chances due to good anticipation on the boards, but this team will need their deep shots to sink to stand a chance against a team that simple overmatches them in talent, size and athleticism.
The Seminoles are a battle tested team that has what it takes to make a deep run in this tournament. They’ve got depth with 11 players playing at least 11 minutes per game, top-end talent and size. It’ll take a much better team than the Eagles to knock them out. Really, the only question here is: can Florida Gulf Coast keep the score close enough to cover the spread?
In the end, Florida State should pull this one out with a rather sizeable margin. FSU is ranked No. 16 nationally in scoring margin, beating opponents by an average of 11.8 points with most of those opponents come in the form of ACC counterparts; against an Atlantic Sun opponent, the gap could be even wider.
College Basketball Odds: Florida State 85, Florida Gulf Coast 69
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