The Florida Gators have secured a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament and will be pinned against the No. 13 seed East Tennessee State Buccaneers in the Round of 64. Florida faltered in the SEC Tournament, losing their second game in a week to Vanderbilt, but Florida still managed to grab a high seed in their return to the Big Dance following a two year hiatus. For East Tennessee State, this is their first time in the tourney since 2010 when they were a No. 16 seed.
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Odds at BookMaker.eu
The Gators will enjoy a nice spread in the double-digits as BookMaker opened the line at -11 in their favor on Sunday night as the tournament pins a top team from the SEC against a Southern Conference program.
On the season, Florida has been pretty good at covering the spread, but the team’s struggled with that some of late, covering just one of the team’s last four games and just three of their last seven. East Tennessee State is 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven contests after pushing against NC-Greensboro to grab the conference top spot.
Injury Report
Center John Egbunu has missed the last month after suffering a torn ACL in his left-knee. The loss of the big man in the middle is partially to blame for the Gator’s recent slide, dropping three of four games.
The team did beat Mississippi State and South Carolina after Egbunu went down and added Arkansas to the list, but they couldn’t stack up against Vanderbilt—twice—or Kentucky without him.
With Egbunu out, it leaves Florida a bit short inside—no pun intended. The veteran center not only provided a reliable inside shooter, but he was a key defender with 34 blocks in 24 games while averaging 6.5 RPG.
Without Egbunu, Devin Robinson and Justin Leon become the most talented options inside, but the two both stand at just 6’8”.
Player to Watch
Eastern Tennessee State’s biggest ticket to a 4-13 upset in the Round of 64, it’s senior guard T.J. Cromer.
The key offensive contributor to this team scored 64 combined points in the team’s semifinal and final performance in the SoCon tournament and was instrumental in the team’s upset over top-seeded UNC-Greensboro.
He’s a truly dynamic player that can eat up mediocre defense as he’s a tricky player to cover. Cromer is the team’s only real dynamic scorer with Destona Bradford a reasonable support player. Beyond those two, this is a team more about depth than about top-end talent.
In the end, if the Gators can keep Cromer in check, they’ve got a good chance of handling what has been a very good offense. While Cromer is averaging 19.1 PPG and tore up Samford in the Southern Conference playoffs with 41 points, he’s been much less dynamic against some of the more difficult opponents.
In a loss against a lesser SEC team than Florida, the Tennessee Volunteers, Cromer managed just four points. He was heavily guarded the entire time and the rest of the offense couldn’t take advantage of less coverage as the team eventually fell 75-61.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
If history is any indication, Florida has the upper-hand, having beaten East Tennessee State in all four meetings against them, of course the last such meeting came way back in 1980.
Looking at more telling signs, the Gators are still heavy favorites, coming from a much tougher conference than the Southern Conference’s Bucs. East Tennessee State did, however, face two different SEC teams this year, splitting those games. Of course, both games were against mediocre SEC teams in Mississippi State and Tennessee, who we’ve already noted were able to completely silence Cromer.
Florida is a much more difficult opponent and boast a very strong defense. Look for the Gators’ defense to severely slow down the Bucs’ offense—particularly on the outside—which is the team’s biggest strength with Cromer. They’ve averaged 79.9 PPG, but won’t get anywhere near that even with Florida still dealing with the big void inside the paint.
With the better defense and a proven offense that’s shown it can get the job done against superior competition, Florida should cruise rather easily to the next round. Keep an eye on the spread, however, as the Bucs’ at least have a strong enough offense to avoid being blown out on Thursday. Watch the spread, if it grows, jump on the Bucs.
College Basketball Odds: Florida 81, East Tennessee State 71
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