With the Mountain West Conference likely getting one entry in the NCAA Tournament, it’s only fitting that the top two teams square off for the automatic bid. San Diego State was good enough the last four years to get an at-large berth but the Aztecs can’t blow it this year if they want to extend their run to seven straight NCAA appearances.
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HOW THE FRESNO STATE BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Fresno State is one win away from its first trip to the NCAA Tournament since 2001, and it’s only fitting that they play San Diego State. The Bulldogs ended SDSU’s 11-game winning streak to open conference play, one of just two league losses this season.
Going against the top frontcourt in the conference and one that rivals the best in the country, the play of forwards Karachi Edo and Cullen Russo will be huge. The Bulldogs are shorthanded up front with Torren Jones on the shelf, making this an area of concern.
The Bulldogs have something the Aztecs don’t, and that’s MWC Player of the Year Marvelle Harris. The senior guard is averaging 20.9 points and has 35 in two tournament games. However, he’s made just 37.5 percent of his shots.
For Fresno State to have any chance in this game, Harris needs to shoot the basketball better against the top defensive club in the conference. He scored just 12 in the loss to SDSU and netted 20 in the win. His contributions are vital to the team’s success.
HOW THE SAN DIEGO STATE AZTECS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
There is some debate over the Aztecs worthiness of being an NCAA Tournament team should they not win the conference’s automatic bid. Many feel they are, but the final decision rests with the selection committee.
San Diego State was good enough the past four seasons after losing the Mountain West tournament title game. A simpler way to assure their spot in the Big Dance would be to win on Saturday. That’s something this squad hasn’t done since 2011.
The Aztecs won five of six games coming into the tournament. The loss was at home to Boise State on Feb. 27 when they blew a nine-point lead with 1:40 to go before falling 66-63. The Aztecs win with smothering defense, holding each of their last nine opponents to fewer than 67 points and leading the country in field goal percentage.
The long, athletic frontcourt of Skylar Spencer, Winston Shepard, Zylan Cheatham and Malik Pope will give the undersized Bulldogs all kinds of trouble on both ends of the floor. They love to throw down vicious dunks off turnovers created from the press which demoralizes opponents.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
San Diego State has been in this position before, playing for the Mountain West tournament title. Only this time the Aztecs likely need a victory to secure their school-record seventh straight NCAA Tournament trip. Given what’s at stake and how well both teams play defense, it isn’t a stretch to say this game will be in the 60s, or maybe even the 50s. For the Aztecs, that fits right into their style. They surrender just 60 points per game, the fourth-best total in the country, and are the best at defending the field goal, allowing opponents to shoot just 37.1 percent. They’ve allowed fewer than 60 points in a game 17 times and held Fresno State to 58 in a game SDSU lost. The Aztecs have too many weapons down low for Fresno to account for and the defensive pressure will be constant. Besides, San Diego State has to win one of these eventually.
San Diego State 65, Fresno State 59
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