Last season, Dayton barely got past the Colonials in overtime as George Washington got out to an early lead and almost delivered the win. This time, Dayton is at home and it’ll be George Washington’s turn to try and deliver the upset.
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HOW THE GEORGE WASHINGTON COLONIALS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Colonials have now covered the spread in back-to-back games, getting back on track after a brief hiccup.
Dayton provides a nice little test for George Washington, but that test may be a bit easier depending on the status of Flyers’ guard Charles Cook. The team’s scoring leader is dealing with an oblique injury that cost him the team’s last game, a game the Flyers won, but failed to cover the spread.
The Colonials also have an injury concern with Joe McDonald questionable for the game. McDonald is a nice piece in the backcourt, but he’s not nearly as instrumental to George Washington as Cook is to Dayton.
For George Washington, the front court is really the strength. Tyler Cavanaugh and Kevin Larsen in particularly make an excellent tandem. They are combining for 15.3 RPG and are scoring 17.2 and 11.9 PPG respectively.
For the Colonials to cover, they’ll need big things inside the paint from these two who are each shooting at least 51.8 percent from the floor.
On the outside, the Colonials aren’t void of talent, even if McDonald misses the game. Guard Patricio Garino is second on the team in scoring with 12.4 PPG and has a .481 field goal percentage. He’s also shooting 44.7 percent behind the arc.
HOW THE DAYTON FLYERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Dayton is shooting a very respectable 46.5 percent from the floor. Add to that a strong defense, averaging 65.8 PPG and there’s excellent reason to back the Flyers.
Cook’s health and availability is a major concern, though the team did win their last game without him and the spread will reflect whether or not he’s expected to see action on Friday.
With a healthy Cook, the Flyers have a player that is a strong shooter inside and out and provides a team leading 14 blocks and respectable 6.5 RPG despite standing at only 6’5”.
Fellow guards Scoochie Smith and Kyle Davis should be able to handle the Colonial’s backcourt on their own, but with Cook, the team has a real advantage.
Inside the paint, the Flyers match up pretty well with George Washington, too. They have Kendall Pollard and Dyshawn Pierre both offering at least 10.8 PPG.
As for the Colonials, McDonald’s numbers are dwarfed by Cook’s, but McDonald did hang 19-points on Dayton last year, so if he’s out that could have a noticeable impact.
George Washington, despite its success in the last two games, is still only 3-4 ATS over its last seven games.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Defensively, Dayton has the advantage and the Flyers also boast a 9-1 home record. If Cook is fully healthy, they’re the team to beat in this matchup, but the problem is, without him, the Colonials can easily bridge the gap.
George Washington has gotten back in the win column ATS of late and have found an offensive boost as well, scoring 91 and 81 points in consecutive games. Their offensive output figures to fall back against Dayton, but as long as Cook is sidelined, look for the Colonials to at least keep this one very close against the hometown team.
Dayton holds the edge, but the gap is very narrow.
Dayton 68, George Washington 66
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