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Villanova is guaranteed the top spot for the Big East tournament thanks to Tuesday’s win over hapless DePaul. Despite that secure position, the No. 3 Wildcats still have plenty at stake in their regular season finale. A slip up against Georgetown could impact their chances for a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
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HOW THE GEORGETOWN HOYAS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s been a tumultuous season for the Hoyas, one that had them enter it as a favorite to contend with Villanova at the top of the Big East standings. But with five straight losses and eight in their last nine games, Georgetown has to win the conference tournament to gain entry into the Big Dance.
And while that’s unlikely to happen, senior D’Vauntes Smith-Rivera isn’t going down without a fight. Smith-Rivera entered his name for consideration into the NBA draft following his junior season, then withdrew. He’s been a pillar this year for a young Hoyas squad.
Regardless of Smith-Rivera’s contributions, Georgetown has reached this point because of frequent offensive lapses. The Hoyas are eighth in the Big East in scoring offense, scoring margin and field goal percentage.
Georgetown got a monster game from Isaac Copeland last time out, but help for Smith-Rivera has been the exception and not the norm. Coach John Thompson III needs to see if freshmen Tre Campbell and Jessie Govan are future building blocks. A good showing against Villanova might give him the answer he needs.
HOW THE VILLANOVA WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
No longer at the top of the national poll, Villanova is still No. 1 in the Big East for a third consecutive season.
With the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament already sewn up, the Wildcats could face a letdown in the regular season finale against a team that only has a win over St. John’s in its last nine games. But Nova needs to fine-tune its game and could secure a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament if it doesn’t slip up.
While the three-pointer remains a necessary component to the Wildcats offensive philosophy, this team has multiple options in the post, plus guards and wings adept at dribble penetration, even more so than last season’s 33-3 squad. And that allows Villanova to withstand any difficulties from long range.
As efficient offensively as the Wildcats are this season, the defense often goes overlooked. Nova is sixth nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, surrenders just 63 points per game and limits opponents to below 40 percent field goal shooting. The Wildcats can thwart Georgetown’s upset bid by shutting down Smith-Rivera.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Villanova has a balance few teams in the Big East, and perhaps the country, can match. Josh Hart has the length at 6-foot-5 to finish in the lane and can spot up on the perimeter. Along with 6-foot-6 Kris Jenkins, the two form a duo that few teams can defend. Jalen Brunson has the range and is fearless when he crashes the lane. Daniel Ochefu handles the middle and scores better than 10 points per game picking up the scraps. This is a team built for a long run in the NCAA Tournament and the Big East schedule is just a stepping stone to their ultimate goal. The Wildcats stymied Georgetown when the teams met in DC, holding the Hoyas to 32.7 percent shooting and giving up just 15 to leading scorer Smith-Rivera. And that was six weeks ago when Georgetown was still in the Big East picture.
Villanova 66, Georgetown 59
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