The Gonzaga Bulldogs are currently on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament according to Joe Lunardi with the Zags needing a win against the BYU Cougars in the West Coast Conference semifinals on Monday to at least have a shot at qualifying.
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HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Gonzaga beat BYU in Provo just a week ago but it wasn't easy for the Bulldogs. Domantas Sabonis came up huge down the stretch for the Bulldogs, scoring 15 points and grabbing 13 rebounds to help Gonzaga get past the Cougars. Sabonis ended up fouling out late but his presence was huge and is needed if Gonzaga wants to make the tournament final.
Sabonis had a pretty good showing in the Bulldogs' quarterfinal game, a win over Portland, but the star of the show was Eric McClellan. With Sabonis, Josh Perkins, and Silas Melson all in foul trouble, McClellan had one of his best games of the season, hitting 8-of-15 from the floor and registering a game high 26 points.
His play along with Kyle Wiltjer is very important for Gonzaga's hopes not only in this game, but for however long Gonzaga is playing basketball this season.
HOW THE BYU COUGARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Cougars have the West Coast Conference Player of the Year, Kyle Collinsworth, and he has the ability to take over any game he's in. Collinsworth is averaging 15.2 points, 8.3 rebounds, and 7.5 assists per game, and has been the most versatile player in the league.
He can't score like Wiltjer or rebound like Sabonis, but he does everything very well; think a poor man's Ben Simmons. Against Gonzaga last week, he put up 15 points, 15 rebounds, and eight assists, but his shooting reflected BYU's woes and Collinsworth hit just 30 percent of his shots from the floor in defeat.
Chase Fischer is the player that the Cougars turn to when they need some points. He’s one of the best scorers in the WCC with 18.1 PPG. Fischer has played according to form in his two previous games against the Zags, registering 18 in each, but only tallied 14 on 4-of-11 shooting in the Cougars' quarterfinal win against Santa Clara.
Fischer must play better than that if BYU is to continue its season and reach the WCC Final.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Bulldogs have been a marginal team against the number this season, posting a 13-15-1 ATS mark and hold a 2-2-1 ATS record at neutral sites. Three of Gonzaga's five neutral site games have gone over the total, but both games the Bulldogs played against BYU have sailed under the number.
BYU is 16-12-1 ATS this season but just 2-2 ATS in neutral site games. The Cougars have played 15 of their 29 lined games over the total, but the over has hit in three of their four neutral site games.
BYU has to win the conference title in order to make the NCAA Tournament, while a win here and a close loss to St. Mary's in the WCC title game may be enough to get Gonzaga in. Gonzaga has the talent advantage but BYU played the Bulldogs extremely tough and if the Cougars hadn't shot 14 percent worse from the field than the Bulldogs, they would have swept the regular season rivalry.
Look for BYU to do all the little things and pull the mild upset Monday night.
BYU 78, Gonzaga 74
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The game between the Gonzaga Bulldogs and the BYU Cougars is scheduled for Monday, March 7, 2016 at 11:30 p.m. ET at Orleans Arena in Las Vegas. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN2.
