Is this the year that the Gonzaga Bulldogs take a bit of a step back in the WCC? They haven't let go of their vice grip on this conference for well over a decade at this point, but this team feels like it might be at least a bit vulnerable. The San Francisco Dons aren't great, but they've challenged the Zags before successfully and know what they're getting into in their biggest conference game of the season at home on Saturday night.
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HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Is it possible that the Bulldogs are actually better without Przemek Karnowski in the fold?
The big man has been dealing with a back problem, and that has caused Mark Few to go to a bit of a smaller lineup at times. Kyle Dranginis is often sharing the court with Josh Perkins instead of just providing some relief for him, and having two point guards on the court at the same time might legitimately be the wave of the future in college hoops.
Kyle Wiltjer is being used more as a slasher than just a spot up shooter this year, and that seems to really suit him well. Sure, he can step back and knock down a few threes, but it's the dribble drive which really makes him dangerous.
No one the Dons throw his way can stop him in isolation, and we'd bet if Wiltjer has yet another 20+ point game, the Bulldogs should escape San Francisco without incident.
HOW THE SAN FRANCISCO DONS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
San Francisco isn't a particularly good three-point shooting team, so it isn't like it will be able to shoot its way to an upset on Saturday night. Instead, it has to build on the momentum of playing at home and avoid the classic trap of turning the ball over far too often against Gonzaga.
Clearly, if the Dons turn it over too often, they're dead in this one, and their average of 13.8 turnovers per game is worrisome.
However, the Dons do have a star on their side. Devin Watson is averaging 19.1 points per game, and he's emerging as a lot more than just a pass-first guard as he was for the most part last year. San Francisco badly needs Watson to have himself an awesome game in this one, and anything less than 40 combined between he and Tim Derksen would be a huge disappointment.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Gonzaga has used this small-ish lineup to its advantage in these last two games. Pepperdine and Loyola Marymount had no answers whatsoever in the Kennel, and both were easily covered.
With Karnowski expected to sit once again through this week, this could be yet another opportunity for the guards to shine. Having extra little guys who can handle the ball on the court at the same time can only help on the road in tough environments as this one will be.
Talent will eventually rule the day in this one, as we suspect the Dons will go down without a fight in the last 10 minutes or so of the game, even if Watson does put up the game of his life.
Gonzaga 82, San Francisco 66
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