SMU was the last unbeaten in the country, but the Mustangs have lost three of their past five games and the NCAA punishment that denied them a postseason berth could be hitting them. Gonzaga is riding a six-game winning streak and has reclaimed first place in the West Coast Conference.
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HOW THE GONZAGA BULLDOGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Alone atop the West Coast Conference and on the cusp of breaking back into the top 25, Gonzaga is rounding into form jus as the season turns down the home stretch.
The Bulldogs spent most of this season underperforming relative to expectations and playing without consistency. That’s changed, as the Zags have gone on a convincing six-game winning streak thanks to balanced, composed play.
While the frontcourt duo of Kyle Wiltjer and Domantas Sabonis grab most of the headlines, it’s fifth-year guard Kyle Dranginis who has keyed the transformation. Wiltjer averages 21.8 points and Sabonis 17.4 with 11.7 rebounds. Those two will look to damage SMU’s frontcourt much the same way Tulsa did.
Dranginis was inserted into the starting lineup six games ago and the Bulldogs haven’t lost. His stats don’t jump off the sheet, but he’s a calming influence and provided a spark along with the senior leadership that have make coach Mark Few’s teams so successful in the past.
HOW THE SMU MUSTANGS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
SMU’s quest for an undefeated season ended a little over two weeks ago. Their unbeaten home streak ended Wednesday with a loss to Tulsa. But, coach Larry Brown thinks that might not be a bad chain of events. The talk of how special the team is and the chance of going undefeated may have affected his kids. Now they can play basketball.
After romping to an 18-0 start, all three of the Mustangs’ losses have come in the past five games. With no postseason on the horizon due to NCAA sanctions, the Mustangs can easily be let down after having the only thing left to play for taken away. But SMU’s leaders, led by Nic Moore and Markus Kennedy, say they won’t let that happen.
Losing at Moody Coliseum has been a rare occurrence. SMU is 40-4 since they gym was renovated and 46-4 in its last 50 home games. In those games, the Mustangs have averaged a plus-16.5 scoring margin, a 50.8 shooting percentage while holding opponents to 37.3 percent.
SMU lost the battle under the basket and on the perimeter against Tulsa, something they rarely do at home. Gonzaga will try and throw its weight around underneath to disrupt SMU’s bigs. The Mustangs need bigger efforts from Jordan Tolbert, Kennedy and Ben Moore.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
An undefeated season was motivating the Mustangs through most of the year. That’s been taken away following a loss to Temple on Jan. 24. SMU still had a 15-game home winning streak to continue, but that ended Wednesday with a loss to Tulsa. With no postseason looming, is there anything left for the Mustangs to play for? Unlike past seasons, Gonzaga isn’t guaranteed a tournament spot and wins over ranked opponents are crucial for the Bulldogs’ resume. The Zags will be on the road for a fourth consecutive game so fatigue could be a factor. SMU’s interior defense has been weak during a 2-3 stretch and the Bulldogs have two studs down low. Sabonis is an anchor in the middle while Wiltjer can post up in the paint and also drain threes at a good clip. His versatility is tough to defend and the Mustangs will have their hands full.
Gonzaga 75, SMU 71
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