Following a four-year absence, Texas AM makes its return to the NCAA Tournament. The third-seeded Aggies reeled off eight straight wins before losing to Kentucky in the SEC tournament final, and matched the highest seed in program history.
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Green Bay Phoenix +13
Texas AM Aggies -13
Over/Under: 155
HOW THE GREEN BAY PHOENIX CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Green Bay leads the nation in steals amidst a run of high scoring contests. The Phoenix also have eight wins in nine games and upset Horizon League regular season champ Valparaiso in the conference tourney to secure their first NCAA bid since 1996.
The high-flying Phoenix are among the nation’s most explosive teams, averaging 84.2 points per game, which ranks sixth nationally. They want to run with the Aggies and create more possessions with turnovers.
Senior guard Carrington Love is the fire behind the Phoenix. If he’s on, Green Bay has a realistic shot of covering the spread. Love leads the team in scoring with 17.7 points per outing, and hit 84 threes on the year, more than double any of his teammates.
Love and Jordan Fouse each have better than two thefts per game and they will hound the Aggies relentlessly. If TexasA&M is sloppy with the ball, the Phoenix are on the move and the score will escalate.
HOW THE TEXAS AM AGGIES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Aggies closed the season on fire, recovering from a mid-season swoon to capture the SEC regular season title outright and advance to the conference title game before bowing to Kentucky in overtime.
There’s plenty of talent on the roster, maybe a bit more than the Phoenix will be able to handle. The group is also experienced with four senior starters. Among them is Danuel House, who scored 32 against Kentucky.
Senior Jalen Jones and House do the bulk of the scoring, but senior point guard Alex Caruso – the school’s all-time leader in assists and steals – runs the show. He’ll be pestered by Green Bay all game and must take care of the basketball.
Caruso has 43 assists against just 10 turnovers over his last seven games and fellow starting guard Anthony Collins has given it up just twice in 85 minutes in a four-game stretch. The Aggies can run with Green Bay, but limiting possessions is key against a team that thrives on them.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Texas AM wins games with defense, ranking 31st nationally in points allowed. That plays well in the tournament, though inexperience doesn’t. None of these Aggies were around when the team last crashed the Big Dance in 2011. The defense will be tested against Green Bay’s tempo product that produces nearly 85 points a game.
Green Bay is a dangerous 14-seed, so the Aggies better not take them lightly. Texas AM doesn’t exactly have a lot of NCAA Tournament experience, and that could sometimes spell disaster. We think AM will get by in this game, but if you’re feeling brave, at least think about the Phoenix for the upset
Texas AM 84, Green Bay 77
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