The Virginia Cavaliers are one of the biggest favorites in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. They're being asked to lay over three touchdowns against the MEAC champion Hampton Pirates in the 1/16 game in the Midwest Region.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Hampton Pirates +23.5
Virginia Cavaliers –23.5
HOW THE HAMPTON PIRATES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
MEAC teams haven't exactly had the greatest luck in the NCAA Tournament in their history, and unfortunately, the way for Hampton to cover this spread is to merely hope that the 23.5 points are enough to stick inside of.
If there's some hope here, it's that Hampton can rebound the basketball incredibly well for a low-end mid-major team. Quinton Chievous is sure to have problems in this game with his 6-foot-6 frame, but there's no doubting that he can get up and rebound with the big boys.
He's averaging 17.0 points and 11.0 rebounds per game, and he kicked off this season with 29 points and 23 boards against Winthrop.
Let's not forget that the seven main men in this rotation for the Pirates are all upperclassmen, five of which are seniors. That senior leadership can be pesky for big boy teams from time to time, though statistically, the Pirates don't shoot threes all that well and don’t have the size to matchup with the Cavaliers.
HOW THE VIRGINIA CAVALIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Last year, the Cavaliers were never able to really shake Belmont until the dying moments of the game in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament because they never really got the pace of the game under control. They got caught up in the up and down play set by the Bruins, and fell into that trap. Parlay that with a team which hit eight threes, and the makings were there for an upset.
Of course, that's not how this played out, as good defense and talent ultimately ruled the day and sent the Cavs into the first weekend of the dance.
Don't think for one second that Tony Bennett and his team haven't learned lessons, though. If the Cavaliers let this game get a little sloppy and out of control, they could end up in a lot more of a fight than a No. 1 seed should have against a No. 16.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We'll gladly take the points with Hampton. We don't think there's really much of a chance for Virginia to get challenged in this NCAAB game from start to finish, but we also don't see the Hoos topping out in the high-70s either.
Senior leaders tend to step up and make big shots, and sometimes, that just doesn't show on the stat sheet. When this one is said and done with, we do think that Hampton will shoot less than 40 percent from the field, but we also don't think there's ever going to be a point where the Cavaliers are able to totally break free either.
Don't be surprised if the final score of this one looks like a slightly lower-scoring version of the game the Cavs played last year against Belmont. Malcolm Brogdon will once again have a really good game, but he won't be able to cover such a big number if he's one of just four men on this squad scoring more than five points as was the case in the opening round last year.
Virginia 72, Hampton 54
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