The under-.500 Fighting Illini are playing their best basketball of the season and shooting for another upset as the 12th seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Illinois shocked Purdue in the only regular season meeting, and doing so again in Friday’s rematch would send it to the conference semifinals.
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HOW THE ILLINOIS FIGHTING ILLINI CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Illini are about to get fitted with the glass slipper. Illinois picked a good time to win consecutive games for the first time since December and is on a roll knowing there is nothing to lose and everything to gain.
A blowout win over Minnesota in the first round instilled confidence in the group ahead of its game with Iowa. Knocking off the Hawkeyes has them oozing with the stuff. It’s do-or-die time and Illinois dug deep to play far above the level they’ve consistently shown.
The play of freshmen forward Michael Finke and guard Jalen Coleman-Lands was instrumental in both tournament wins. Finke entered Wednesday having scored five points over his last four games, but erupted for 17 against the Gophers and added six in the Iowa win.
Coleman-Lands is closing in on the Illinois freshman record for three-pointers and has been hot from beyond the arc in the tournament, hitting 8 of 14 in the two games. The Illini won’t get much down low against Purdue’s imposing frontcourt, so knocking down their threes is a must.
HOW THE PURDUE BOILERMAKERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Boilermakers are in a much different position than last year, when they headed into the Big Ten tournament needing at least one victory to solidify an NCAA berth. This season’s team still has plenty to play for despite being assured a bid – namely revenge against the Illini.
Purdue rolls into the tournament riding a three-game winning streak and has victories in four of its last five. The only loss in that span was a four-pointer at Indiana. A big reason for the success is the Boilermakers ability to put the ball in the basket.
And the trend is clear. Purdue has shot better than 50 percent in each of its past four games. That’s not just a byproduct of the big men, as the Boilermakers are shooting 47.1 percent from three-point range in that span.
The offensive efficiency has come from favorable shot selection. Purdue has the outside threats in Vince Edwards and P.J. Thompson, but they also have A.J. Hammons and Caleb Swanigan, who are physical in the post. Being patient will lead to numerous easy opportunities.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Illinois is playing with a lot of confidence heading into its quarterfinal round matchup with Purdue. And the Illini’s only Big Ten regular season win over a team not named Rutgers or Minnesota was a stunner at home over Purdue on Jan. 10. Guards Malcolm Hill and Kendrick Nunn were huge in that game, combining to hit 17 of 27 field goals and 5 of 7 threes in the surprisingly easy 84-70 victory. It’s been a struggle since then, however, but the Illini have posted consecutive wins for the first time since December and have nothing to lose. Purdue has played its way into the NCAA Tournament, but the loss to Illinois during the regular season cost them a higher seed in the conference tournament and made their push to the NCAA’s a little tougher than it needed to be. Illinois has tired legs after playing the last two nights and the Boilermakers have long memories.
Purdue 83, Illinois 71
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