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Michigan State’s Denzel Valentine might be the most athletic player on the court Sunday. How fitting is that since the game is played on Feb. 14. Valentine sank the game-winning three-pointer on his day last year, sending the Spartans to a win over Ohio State. Does he have anything special lined up for Indiana?
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HOW THE INDIANA HOOSIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Indiana just defeated Iowa, the No. 4 team in the country and the Big Ten leader, to create a three-way tie for the top spot along with No. 2 Maryland. The Hoosiers’ impressive 85-78 victory is proof that coach Tom Crean’s clan can beat any team.
But the Hoosiers have been wildly inconsistent, especially over the past few weeks. On Jan. 30, Indiana tried its best to lose to woeful Minnesota. Three days later the Hoosiers pounded NCAA tournament contender Michigan in Ann Arbor. Last week, they suffered a confidence-shaking loss at floundering Penn State. On Thursday, the Hoosiers toppled the fourth-ranked team.
Though there have been some unexplainable losses, Indiana plays hard all the time, a product of the system installed by Crean. We know the Hoosiers will fight and claw to the end. And more times than not they’ve come out on the winning side.
They’ll have to display the same tenacity against Michigan State that carried them over Iowa. If they don’t, a result similar to the Penn State outcome could be in order.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The return of Tum Tum Nairn could go a long toward determining the fate of the Spartans down the stretch. The starting point guard is nearing a return and coach Tom Izzo left the door slightly cracked for Sunday’s game.
This is a major development for several reasons. In Nairn’s absence, Denzel Valentine has seen a bulk of the minutes at the point. Though he’s a capable ball-handler, the expanded role coupled with Valentine’s workload contributes to fatigue. By the end of Tuesday’s overtime loss to Purdue, Valentine’s fatigue was obvious on plays like a dunk that came up short and shots that were off the mark.
Nairn could also be useful trying to stop super-quick point guard Yogi Ferrell. Eron Harris will likely get the assignment since Tum Tum has missed the past seven games. Valentine could also spend time on Ferrell. Keeping Valentine fresh while having him play as much as possible is a high-wire act Izzo needs to navigate.
Valentine is the key for Sparty. He flirted with a triple-double against Purdue and has a size and skill advantage against any IU defender. As long as fatigue doesn’t set in, he will be the difference for MSU.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
That loss to Penn State just sticks out, giving us more reason to not pick Indiana for the upset. Sure the Hoosiers beat No. 4 Iowa, but that came in Assembly Hall where IU always seems to have an advantage. Barely getting by Minnesota, which has yet to win a Big Ten game this season, and the loss to Penn State are inconsistencies that are hard to overlook. The Hoosiers also had the luxury of playing the soft part of their league schedule at the beginning, which helped them post a 10-2 mark to this point. Michigan State has had its own difficulties. Each of Sparty’s last three losses has all been by one point, and before that they were pummeled at home by the Hawkeyes. But it’s hard to go against Valentine and the Spartans in a game played on Feb. 14.
Michigan State 76, Indiana 71
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