Two elite programs clash on Friday for the first time in the NCAA Tournament since Michael Jordan last donned the Tar Heels’ blue. Indiana upset UNC back in 1984 and will look to harken back to history with another upset in these teams’ Sweet-16 battle on Friday.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu
Indiana Hoosiers +6
North Carolina Tar Heels –6
Over/Under 160
HOW THE INDIANA HOOSIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The East Region’s No. 5 seed upset Kentucky on Saturday to reach the Sweet-16, pulling away in the final minutes while holding everyone not named Jamal Murray or Tyler Ulis relatively silent.
Meanwhile, Indiana shot 48.1 percent on field goals and Yogi Ferrell shot 6-for-13 from the floor, adding in five free-throws for 18-points. Thomas Bryant outscored Ferrell with 19-points, shooting 6-for-8.
The defensive performance for the Hoosiers against the Wildcats was more impressive than the offense. Kentucky is a strong offensive club and Indiana’s been spotty on defense, but came through when it mattered.
Offensively, the Hoosiers are a top-10 team in scoring with 82.5 PPG and are ranked second in all of college basketball, shooting 50.5 percent on field goals. If Indiana is sinking its shots, the Hoosiers can outshoot anyone including UNC.
Ferrell gives the team an elite player in the backcourt and has done a great job almost singlehandedly making up for the loss of James Blackmon Jr. earlier this season. The fact that the rest of the team possesses strong outside shooters as well, helps here, too.
Upfront, the Hoosiers have Bryant and Troy Williams causing matchup issues. Each is a strong shooter, but Bryant in particular is nails, sinking 68.9 percent of his shots.
As for the spread in particular, Indiana is 19-15 ATS this year while UNC is under-.500. For now, I am also a bit concerned about UNC’s slower starts in its first two games of this tournament, but it has managed to turn it on in the second half to secure commanding wins.
If the Hoosiers come out of the gate fast, it could prove to be a real challenge if UNC once again comes out a bit flat again.
HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Having covered the spread in five of their last six games, the Tar Heels are trending in the right direction right now.
UNC has a dominant offense just like Indiana, but backs it up with a better defense, one that allows the opposition to shoot just 41 percent on field goals and one that’s allowing the opposition to score 13 fewer PPG than the Tar Heels score.
The UNC defense is playing as well as it has all season right now. It’s shutting down the opposition outside. That’s big against a strong shooting team like Indiana. If UNC can defense the Hoosiers well and limit the open shots, it can force Indiana into mistakes.
There are a few injury concerns for the Hoosiers, eating into some of their roster depth. The Tar Heels have the deeper roster to begin with anyway. UNC goes six deep with players averaging at last nine PPG.
Inside, Brice Johnson leads this team. He’s got 16.8 PPG, 53 blocks and 10.5 RPG while shooting nearly 62 percent from the floor. Justin Jackson, Isaiah Hicks and Kennedy Meeks add to the depth inside.
On the perimeter, Joel Berry II and Marcus Paige contend with Ferrell. Neither are quite the same player, but the two are a strong combo that averages 24.7 PPG.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Injuries to some of Indiana’s role players could play a role here. Keep an eye on that as we push closer and closer to game time.
Indiana’s big win over Kentucky is encouraging for them, but I’m still not convinced it has enough to upset the No. 1 seed.
Indiana is prone to turning the ball over, doing so in nearly one out of every five possessions. The team is a strong shooting team—one of the nation’s best, but it gave the ball away too often and aren’t consistent enough getting to the line.
The Tar Heels have a strong fast break that I expect to take advantage of the Hoosiers turnovers
North Carolina 78, Indiana 75
BookMaker offers play-by-play betting odds for live sporting events every day! The user-friendly wagering interface on your smartphone provides an easy way to place bets on the go. Mobile betting lines are updated by the minute so click here to start gambling on thrilling live action at BookMaker Sportsbook! The game between the Indiana Hoosiers and North Carolina Tar Heels will start at 9:57 p.m. ET on Friday, March 25, 2016, at the Wells Fargo Center. The contest will be broadcast live on TBS.
