On Saturday, the Hoosiers and Irish will kick off the Crossroads Classic as the state of Indiana’s four most storied basketball programs battle for supremacy in the Hoosier State. Notre Dame beat the Hoosiers—and covered the spread—the last time these two teams met.
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HOW THE INDIANA HOOSIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Indiana cannot count on its defense to shut down the Irish. Instead, to cover the spread, the Hoosiers will look to a fast-paced offensive game, leveraging an offense that ranks No. 6 in college basketball with 89 PPG and first with a stellar 53.9 percent shooting mark from the floor.
In addition to a top notch field goal percentage, the Hoosiers are also amongst the best behind the arc with 43.8 percent accuracy from three-point range.
Indiana is particularly strong in the backcourt with guards Yogi Ferrell and James Blackmon Jr. averaging 16.8 PPG and 16.0 PPG respectively. Ferrell also has a staggering 71 assists, giving him nearly six and a half per game as he gets the rest of the lineup involved.
Down low, Indiana also has plenty of strength with forward Troy Williams and freshman center Thomas Bryant. Both are averaging over 11 PPG and have combined for 12.2 RPG.
While the offense in general is strong, rebounding hasn’t been the strongest suit of this team as they, instead, rely more on accuracy and the ability to create open shots.
To cover the spread against Notre Dame, they’ll need to keep pace in rebounds and be at least respectable on defense. Last season, the defense was atrocious. It’s been a bit better here in the early going, but Notre Dame has the personnel to exploit them defensively and turn this game into a shootout.
HOW THE NOTRE DAME FIGHITING IRISH CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Irish aren’t too shabby offensively and against a struggling defense could easily hang with the Hoosiers.
They’re averaging nearly 10 fewer PPG with 79.6, but their shooting percentage is a very solid 49 percent from the floor. With a number of open shot chances likely, Notre Dame could certainly keep this one close. If you add in better rebounding, leading to additional chances, that’s enough to tip the scales in Notre Dame’s favor.
The Fighting Irish were an Elite Eight team last year. Despite losing a couple of would-be first round draft picks to the NBA, the Irish have retained several key pieces like Zach Auguste, Demetrius Jackson and Steve Vasturia, giving the team plenty of leadership in the paint and in the backcourt.
The trio has really stepped up to fill in the holes. Jackson has turned into a beast with 17.8 PPG, 45 assists and 10 steals, leading the team in all three categories. Meanwhile, with Connaughton gone, the team lost a number of rebounds, but Auguste has 10.4 RPG. He’ll be crucial as the Irish need to keep position of the ball as much as possible against a potent Indiana offense.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Look for a really fun, high scoring shootout. With Indiana the nation’s best shooting team, that’s the kind of game they need to win.
That said, look for the Irish to get the win as they’ve got the experience of playing on the big stage last season in the Elite Eight, and also have a better blend of experience and youth along with a much better defense.
I expect rebounding to be the difference in this game with the Hoosiers posting a better shooting percentage to keep this one very close, but Notre Dame to secure more chances, ultimately paying off with the win.
Notre Dame 81, Indiana 78
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