How the Oregon Ducks respond to the loss of one of their star players will give us a good idea of how far they’ll go in the NCAA Tournament. The Ducks didn’t fare too well in the game immediately following the diagnosis of Chris Boucher, falling to Arizona in the Pac-12 championship game. But the Ducks are a deep squad and with a few extra days to adjust, and the Iona Gaels as a first round opponent, Oregon should still be a Final Four favorite.
This war on the floor will go down Friday, March 17, 2017, at 2 p.m. ET at the Golden 1 Center. The game will be televised live on TBS. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Friday schedule.
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The Gaels didn’t finish first in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference regular season standings. Hell, they didn’t even finish second. Nope, the Gaels went 12-8 in MAAC play and finished tied for third. They were one of two conference teams to reach the 20 win mark, but it is the MAAC, a league not widely known for its basketball pedigree. That being said, Iona did win three tournament games in three days and posted a thrilling overtime win over Sienna for the league crown. But the Gaels will enter their first round matchup with the Ducks as a 14.5-point underdog.
The Ducks snared a No. 3 seed and missed out on a No. 2 spot with their loss to Arizona in the Pac-12 title game. Oregon was reeling from the loss of Boucher, who injured his knee the night before, and still came within three points of taking out Arizona for a second time this season. The Ducks covered the 15.5-point spread in a win over Arizona State in the Pac-12 tournament opener and are 4-0 ATS in their last four and 8-1 ATS in their last nine when favored by 10 or more points.
Injury Report
Oregon’s loss of Boucher is about as substantial as they come at this time of the year. With Boucher going down to a torn ACL in the Pac-12 semis, it may have cost the Ducks a chance at winning the conference tournament and a higher seed. Boucher averaged 11.8 points, 6.1 rebounds and 2.5 blocks per game and the loss hinders Oregon’s interior defense.
Offensively the Ducks still have significant weapons with Brandon Dillon and Tyler Dorsey, but they won’t be able to spread the floor the same without Boucher, who was an effective three-point shooter. Oregon is strong enough to get by Iona without him and could still have an extended run in the tournament, but Boucher’s absence opens the interior for Jordan Washington. The Gaels leading scorer is a presence in the block and he alone could make this game much closer by taking advantage of space in the paint.
Key Stat
Iona’s game plan this season was fairly simple. The Gaels will run the floor and try to outscore their opponents. The strategy worked 64 percent of the time, but they haven’t played a team as athletic as Oregon this year. Iona scores an average of 80.5 points and is the 20th best three-point shooting team in the country. Those numbers largely offset a porous defense.
And now the Gaels have to contend with an underrated group of defenders in the Ducks. Oregon held teams to 65 points while allowing them to shoot just 40 percent from the floor and 31 percent from behind the arc. The Ducks also rank 22nd in defensive efficiency and could turn this game into a laugher if they can contain Washington.
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The Ducks had a few days to process the loss of Boucher and now must move on without him. It’s a big loss, especially for the interior defense, but not one the Ducks can’t overcome. They are deep and talented and even without Boucher, they’re primed for a deep run. The only thing that might hurt Oregon is looking past Iona, and that’s something the Gaels are counting on.
Iona will use its up-tempo game and three-point shooting to try and make up for the difference in talent. It may be successful in keeping the score close, but the Ducks are an underrated defensive club and will do enough to shut down the Gaels attack. On the other end, the options are plentiful and if it isn’t Brooks canning a jumper it’s Dorsey draining a three. Iona won’t be able to keep up as the Ducks cover the spread.
College Basketball Odds: Oregon 87, Iona 65
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