The 19-5 Indiana Hoosiers have feasted on the cupcakes of the Big Ten schedule thus far but the rest of the way they are in for a real challenge. In their last seven regular season games, the Hoosiers play No. 2 Maryland, No. 8 Michigan St, No. 18 Purdue and No. 4 Iowa twice. If they can make it through that stretch with a winning record, Indiana will deserve a good seed in the tournament.
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HOW THE IOWA HAWKEYES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
At the start of the season, there were questions about how good Iowa was. The Hawkeyes had seemingly lost their two toughest games, to Notre Dame and Iowa St, and no other win really stood out. With the emergence of Florida St and Wichita St as potential tournament teams however, the Hawkeyes' nonconference looks better in retrospect and they have been great in conference play.
Iowa has beat Purdue twice, Michigan St twice and its only loss in Big Ten action came at Maryland. There is no denying any longer that this is one of the best teams in the nation.
Senior Jarrod Uthoff is the Hawkeyes' leading scorer and it's no surprise that as he goes so goes Iowa. His one game with less than 10 points this season was the loss at Maryland but he has put up at least 13 points in every other conference game thus far. At Illinois on Sunday, Uthoff scored 18 points and hauled in 12 rebounds in another easy victory. He has also been a beast on defense and is averaging 2.9 blocks per game.
HOW THE INDIANA HOOSIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Yogi Ferrell has made his last season in Bloomington his best, with career highs in almost every category. However, much like Uthoff, when Ferrell struggles so does the whole team.
That explains Indiana's surprising loss as an 8.5 point favorite against Penn St on Saturday. Ferrell shot just 25 percent from the floor and hit just one of six from beyond the arc.
Without him on top of his game, Indiana couldn't score and managed just 63 points.
Aside from Ferrell, Indiana relies on Troy Williams to get rebounds and make plays in the paint. Williams averages 12.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game but can be foul prone.
Fouls held him to just 14 minutes of action in Indiana's game at Michigan last week, and he has shown a tendency for turnovers, especially when he tries to make something happen one on one.
Williams must understand his role for Indiana to emerge victorious on Thursday.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Hawkeyes have been fantastic against the number this year with a 13-7 ATS record overall and 5-2 ATS tally on the road. Iowa has covered its last three and only failed to cover the game before that, against Maryland, by half a point.
Indiana has been dead even for bettors with a 12-12 record against the spread overall, but has been fantastic at home in covering nine of 13. The Hoosiers have played three consecutive under games and seven of their last 10 have combined for low scorers.
Iowa seems to be the better team but Indiana is at home and will have a raucous crowd on hand to see their Hoosiers try to knock off the Hawkeyes. It's hard to exaggerate just how inflated Indiana's conference record is. In a year where the Big Ten has been down, the Hoosiers have failed to prove that they can take on the big boys of the conference and until they do, it's wise to go against them.
Back the Hawkeyes on the road in this one.
Iowa 79, Indiana 71
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Indiana Hoosiers is scheduled for Thursday, February 11, 2016 at 9:00 p.m. ET at Assembly Hall. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.