Two of the best teams in the Big Ten battle on Thursday night when the Michigan St Spartans attempt to avenge the one blemish on their schedule so far this season, the Iowa Hawkeyes.
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HOW THE IOWA HAWKEYES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Iowa was a short favorite when these teams met two weeks ago and had no problem covering the spread, leading the entire way and thumping the then #1 Spartans by 13 in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes led by as many as 19 and held a 14 point half time lead en route to a surprisingly easy victory.
In that game, Mike Gesell dumped in a career high 25 points and Peter Jok put up 19 while star player Jarrod Uthoff sat on the bench in foul trouble. Uthoff isn't usually foul prone and shouldn't have the same issues in this game.
Fran McCaffery has slowly turned this program around and the Hawkeyes are second in the Big Ten in scoring average and third in rebounds per game. Iowa has shown it has what it takes to win on the road too, almost knocking off arch rival Iowa St in Ames and beating Purdue away from home right after the Michigan St game.
Tired legs won't be a factor for the Hawkeyes here. The last game that Iowa played was all the way back on January 5 so this team is the definition of well rested.
HOW THE MICHIGAN ST SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
There's one humongous difference between the last time these two teams met and this game. This time the Spartans will be with superstar Denzel Valentine. Valentine leads the Spartans in every major statistical category, except blocks, and Izzo's boys will look much different with him on the floor.
In Sparty's first game without Valentine, they needed overtime in order to beat Oakland and the offense struggled. Valentine returned on Sunday and although he wasn't great, his presence sparked the offense in a 27 point romp of Penn St.
Location can mean the world in college basketball depending on the officiating crew and when these teams met just a couple weeks ago, the Hawkeyes had the fortune of going to the charity stripe 31 times. The Hawkeyes are unlikely to get the same amount of help from the boys in white and black stripes this time around in East Lansing.
Michigan St is the best team in the Big Ten on the glass and even without Valentine out-boarded Iowa 41-35. His return enables the Spartans to go big if need be and they may be able to out-physical the Hawkeyes down low.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
In the one game these two teams played last year, the Spartans dominated the Hawkeyes despite being underdogs. This was thanks in large part to...you guessed it, Denzel Valentine and his 18 point, nine rebound, six assist game.
Iowa is a solid 3-0 ATS this season playing in unfriendly confines with ATS wins over Purdue, Iowa St and Marquette. Michigan St has been solid at home with a 5-2 mark against the closing line.
If you're looking to bet a total in this one, 10 of 16 have gone under the number for the Spartans this season, while seven of Iowa's 12 games with a listed total have cashed for over bettors.
Expect the return of Valentine to be too much for the Hawkeyes to handle. They've been on a great run, but with Valentine in the line-up Michigan St is a national title contender and will take care of business at home.
Michigan St 81, Iowa 67
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The game between the Iowa Hawkeyes and the Michigan St Spartans is scheduled for Thursday, January 14, 2016 at 7:00 p.m. ET at the Breslin Center. The game will be televised nationally on ESPN.
