The Big 12 meat grinder continues to wear down teams with both the No. 14 Iowa St Cyclones and No. 21 Baylor Bears picking up losses this week, both to unranked Texas Tech. The Cyclones and Bears will both try to get over their recent losses and secure win No. 19 of the year on Super Tuesday.
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HOW THE IOWA ST CYCLONES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Iowa St lost to Texas Tech midweek but picked up a much needed win against another ranked team when they knocked off No. 24 Texas on Saturday. That win avenged a loss against the Longhorns earlier this year and gave the Cyclones another quality win to add to their resume.
Iowa St should pick up at least three more wins, with three home games against the worst three teams in the conference left on the schedule but its last three road games are as tough as any, with this one against Baylor, as well as trips to West Virginia and Kansas remaining.
Georges Niang and Monte Morris had big days for the Cyclones in their win against the Longhorns on Saturday. Morris and Niang each notched 24 points and their great shooting was a big part in the Cyclones shooting 55.4 percent from the field on the day.
To beat the Bears, Niang and Morris need to have big games as well as Abdel Nader and Jameel McKay. The return of McKay is especially important and couldn't have come at a better time as Baylor is one of the best rebounding teams in the nation and McKay will be the one asked to control the Bears on the boards.
HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Baylor has been one of the top rebounding teams in all of college basketball and its +8.6 rebounding margin is good for the 13th best mark in the country. The last time the Bears played the Cyclones, Baylor was able to outrebound Iowa St by four and a big reason for that was Johnathan Motley.
Motley was a force down low against Iowa St with 27 points on 13-of-15 shooting and was fantastic on the glass as well. Motley grabbed seven offensive rebounds and 13 overall to help Baylor notch 60 second half points and a huge road win in Ames. His big game on the glass was somewhat surprising with Motley grabbing 10+ rebounds in three games this season but came up big there.
The man Baylor looks to for a rebounding presence is Rico Gathers who is averaging a double-double on the season with 12.4 points and 10.2 rebounds per game. Gathers' worst rebounding effort in Big 12 play came against Iowa St ironically enough, and if Motley isn't as effective this time around, Gathers will almost certainly reel in more than the five rebounds he did this time around.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Iowa St has been good for bettors this season with a 12-9-1 ATS record and a 5-3 record against the number when away from home. The under has been a solid bet in Cyclones games as well with a 12-9-1 mark.
The Bears have been by far the worst ATS team in conference this season, holding a poor 6-12-1 record ATS and an even worse 3-8 ATS mark when at home. The over could be a good bet here though as 12 of Baylor's 19 games have combined to go over the total with the last game between these two teams combining to go over the closing number by 27.5 points.
Baylor needs this one quite a bit more than Iowa St does. The Cyclones have some big wins on their schedule already while the Bears best win on their resume was against the Cyclones earlier in the year.
Look for Baylor to come out extra motivated to get a win here, and I expect them to do just that.
Baylor 81, Iowa St 76
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