Only the Cyclones stand in the Jayhawks’ way of ending the regular season on an eleven game winning streak. Of course, it was Iowa State that handed Kansas its last loss back on January 25, 85-72.
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HOW THE IOWA STATE CYCLONES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Not only did the Cyclones cover the spread the last time they faced Kansas, but they won the game outright by shooting 51.6 percent from the floor.
Georges Niang is the highest scoring player on either team, averaging 19.3 PPG and shooting 54.2 percent from the floor. He’s joined in a stacked frontcourt by Abdel Nader and Jameel McKay.
If the Cyclones are to win, or even cover the spread, they’ll need to win the inside battle with Kansas. The Jayhawks have a star inside themselves in Perry Ellis, but they’re deeper in the backcourt than inside.
Back in January, Niang scored 19 and Nader added 17, but the Cyclones’ top scorer was actually guard Monte Morris.
Morris was able to compete with the Kansas backcourt and score 21 points. He’s key to Iowa State’s success once again. Iowa State scored just 58 in its last game, beating Oklahoma State 58-50. Morris scored just four points in that game, but over his previous seven has tallied at least 11 six times including a 24-point game against Texas.
Overall, Iowa State goes six deep with healthy, active players scoring double digit PPG. That’s more than the Jayhawks who have a strong top four, but see a significant drop off after that. The fifth spot is a bit of a rotation for Kansas.
HOW THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Jayhawks know how to win and despite always being the favorite, have managed to cover the spread in 18 of 27 games. More recently, they’ve covered the spread in nine of their last ten outings.
On the other side of the court, the Cyclones come into play having failed to cover the spread in seven of their ten games played since toppling Kansas.
Statistically, the Jayhawks have an offense that can stack up with anyone in college basketball, averaging 81.7 PPG and shooting 49.3 percent from the floor. While that’s impressive, the team ranks second in shooting percentage behind the arc at 43 percent.
The Iowa State defense did a reasonable job slowing down the prolific Kansas offense last time out, but the Cyclones aren’t overly skilled defensively according to the stats. Don’t expect them to be able to keep the Jayhawks down in this one.
Iowa State is allowing 74.5 PPG to rank No. 247 in all of college hoops.
If you add a strong defense to Kansas, the Jayhawks are well positioned for some revenge against Iowa State and to cover the spread.
In terms of individual players, Kansas can matchup with Niang inside with Perry Ellis and have a much deeper crop of talent in the backcourt including Frank Mason, Wayne Selden Jr. and Devonte’ Graham.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Iowa State got the better of Kansas in the first go round, but since that point, the Jayhawks have been on a roll while the Cyclones have faltered a bit.
The Cyclones’ 58-point showing against Oklahoma State has me concerned as they need to keep pace with the Jayhawks in what figures to be a shootout. All in all, the edge goes to the nation’s top ranked team and them playing on their home court is just the icing on the cake.
With Iowa State’s defensive woes statistically and its less impressive run of late, bank on Kansas to outscore Iowa State by dominating the perimeter while getting another big basketball game from Perry Ellis in his final game in the Phog.
Kansas 81, Iowa State 75
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