Just when you think you have the Big 12 all figured out, you realize that you don’t. West Virginia was in the driver’s seat atop the league standings last week before losses to Kansas and Texas dropped them behind the Jayhawks. The Mountaineers go for the season sweep of Iowa State when the team’s meet on Big Monday.
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HOW THE IOWA STATE CYCLONES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The season hasn’t gone strictly to plan for the Cyclones, who lost four of six games following Tuesday’s 100-91 overtime loss at No. 22 Baylor. The recent funk caused the squad to gather for an emotional, players-only meeting that team members hope will put the 15th-ranked Cyclones in the right frame of mind for the stretch run.
It’s imperative for coach Steve Prohm to find some minutes from his reserves against West Virginia. Too often Monte Morris, Georges Niang and Matt Thomas are playing almost the entire game and simply cannot keep themselves fresh down the stretch. Giving his stars a few minutes of rest each half will help them deal with WVU’s havoc defense.
Niang is unquestionably the best player on the team and he needs to have the ball in his hands. With 19.4 points per game, he’s one of the best scorers when he gets to the block. But against Baylor he had one shot in the final 11 minutes. The Cyclones will not be successful if their top player isn’t getting his looks.
HOW THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Nobody complains about the Mountaineers defense, nor should they. West Virginia gives up less than 65 points per game, but more importantly, the Mountaineers are forcing more than 19 turnovers a game. That leads to easy transition baskets and helps WVU control the tempo every time out.
West Virginia has turned into a one-dimensional team this season, relying on defense and turnovers to create offense in transition. When forced to play a halfcourt game and the lane is shut down, the Mountaineers are vulnerable.
Better production in two other areas is paramount to the Mountaineers’ success. They shoot just 31.2 percent from behind the arc as a team, one of the worst percentages in the country. Then, when they get fouled, they struggle from the line. Improving those percentages will help make WVU a serious threat in March.
Jaysean Paige, the team’s leading scorer with 13.5 per game, left last week’s game with Texas due to a sprained ankle. His status is unclear for this one, but he will be missed if he can’t go. Not only does Paige handle the bulk of the offensive load, he directs the press and plays tenacious defense. WVU needs him in the lineup.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Iowa State was 8-0 with Naz Mitrou-Long in the lineup. Since he shut it down for the year, the Cyclones are 10-8 and have struggled with depth issues. Jameel McKay has been dealing with a lingering knee problem, adding to the depth concerns and limiting what the defense can do. McKay is the rim protector on this team, so when he isn’t playing well or gets into foul trouble, the Cyclones have no real shot-blocking threat. That allows teams to attack the basket, which creates opportunities for the offense. With Paige limited by his sore ankle, it may not be too much of a concern for Iowa State. But if the Cyclones allow easy buckets at the hole, they’re playing right into the strength of the Mountaineers offense. Morris is the key for ISU. If he breaks the press and makes smart decisions with the basketball, the Cyclones have a good shot at winning. If not, it could be a long afternoon.
West Virginia 74, Iowa State 69
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