The total in the game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Virginia Cavaliers is all you need to look at to know just how interesting their matchup is in the Sweet 16.
The number of 142 is the lowest in a game this year for ISU, and it's the second-highest total UVA has been up against.
College Basketball Odds at BookMaker.eu Iowa State Cyclones +5 Virginia Cavaliers –5 Over/Under 141.5
HOW THE IOWA STATE CYCLONES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Cyclones proved that they can put up 70+ points and run efficient offense while being stuck in the half-court. They were just crazy good offensively against Arkansas-Little Rock on Saturday night, shooting 56.6 percent from the field and 52.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Still, draining over 55 percent against the half-court 'D' of a Sun Belt school and doing so against Virginia are two completely different animals.
Iowa State is going to have to keep shooting the ball well from the outside. Georges Niang has had a good tournament thus far from that perspective, while Matt Thomas already has seven triples to his credit. Monte Morris will have to knock down an outside shot or two as will Abdel Nader.
If all of this goes right for ISU, that'll be the formula for an upset, because that could open up the inside just a bit as it did for Butler against the Hoos.
HOW THE VIRGINIA CAVALIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Cavaliers have to make this a big man game and get Jameel McKay out of the lineup with foul trouble. The Cyclones don't generally have issues with fouls, as they average just a tick over 15 fouls in total per game, but if this is an exception on Friday night, we could see a romp.
The key to working inside though, is to have the same sort of efficiency that the team had in the second half against Butler instead of the first half. UVA scored on 20 of its first 21 possessions of the second half against the Bulldogs, and the mass majority of those scores came inside the paint or off offensive rebounds.
Anthony Gill was a monster when he was being defended against in one-on-one situations in the post, and if he does that again in this game, we don't see the Cyclones coming up with any answers.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Obviously it goes without saying that the pace of play is going to be crucial for both sides, but we're not sure that a fast game necessarily means that ISU will win or that a slow game means UVA will win.
Instead, we think the key here is efficiency.
This is where Iowa State is really going to falter. The Cyclones haven't been up against a big boy team yet in this tournament, and we think this is going to really cause them some problems.
Tony Bennett has to know that the coast is clear at this point. He's only got a pair of double-digit seeds to deal with after this game if the Cavaliers can clear this hurdle, and then it'll be off to the Final Four. With the way Malcolm Brogdon has played defensively and the way the Hoos have dominated in the paint, we think they're on their way to the Elite Eight, and they could be in for a lot more than that as well when it's all said and done.
Virginia 70, Iowa State 63
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BookMaker's live betting platform means you always have access to odds and lines to every sporting event. Click here and start wagering today! The Sweet 16 game between the Iowa State Cyclones and the Virginia Cavaliers will start at 7:10 p.m. ET on Friday, March 25, 2016 at the United Center. The game will be televised nationally on CBS.
