The Indiana Hoosiers were one of the biggest disappointments in the Big Ten, but Tom Crean’s squad can take one step closer towards sweeping their regular season campaign under the rug by getting past the Iowa Hawkeyes in the 10/7 matchup of the Big Ten Tournament. These teams played to a thrilling 96-90 final won by Iowa in overtime back in late February which snapped the Hoosiers two game win streak in the recent rivalry.
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After winning big games against Kansas and North Carolina the first month of the season, the Hoosiers ranked amongst the best teams in the country. It’s been a steady downhill tumble since then with Indiana entering the B1G tourney just three games over .500 overall and owners of a 7-11 record in conference play. Linemakers installed them 16-1 underdogs to win the tournament which amounts to the shortest odds of all the double-digit seeds in this tournament. Indy went 1-2 straight up and against the spread in its three neutral court games played against Kansas, Butler and Louisville.
The Hawkeyes enter the second season smoking hot having rattled off four straight wins and covers. Included in the mix were road wins at Maryland as 7 point underdogs and Wisconsin as 12 point pups. They even took care of business and didn’t suffer a letdown back at home against Penn State in their home finale. Fran McCaffery’s squad was up and down all season, but it couldn’t have picked a better time to be in a groove. Interestingly, the No. 7 seed has longer odds to win this tournament than Indiana with their odds opening at +3500 and being bet down to +2937.
Key Stat
+8.0 – The Hoosiers own a huge advantage on the glass with them outrebounding all foes by an average of 8.0 rebounds per game. Iowa checks in just about even. That advantage however didn’t play out in the team’s lone meeting in Iowa City where the Hawkeyes hung tough on the glass only losing the battle of the boards 36-33. Most importantly, they also competed on the offensive glass snagging 12 of their own to Indiana’s 14. Thomas Bryant went for a game-high 11 rebounds, but he’ll need to take his game to the next level to get his club into the next round.
Player to Watch
Nicholas Baer – The junior forward has made a huge impact throughout the Hawkeyes current win streak. He went for double-digit points in each contest and will take to the hardwood in D.C. off his biggest game of the season against the Nittany Lions whom he went for 20 points and 10 rebounds against. While his scoring touch will be needed, it will be his rebounding prowess that the Hawkeyes will sorely need with him averaging an even 6.0 boards per game. He went for 10 points and 7 rebounds in the first meeting with Indiana, but will need to do better to give Peter Jok the complement he’ll sorely need.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
Iowa hasn’t logged a win in the B1G tourney since trouncing Northwestern back in 2013. It’s been three straight first game exits for the Hawkeyes since, but they went on to partake in the NCAA Tournament immediately after. That won’t be the case here today. If they fall to the Hoosiers, they’re done. Likewise for Indiana who needs only to win this tournament to have a shot at lacing up their dancing shoes.
Indiana controlled their lone meeting with the Hawkeyes, and I expect them to do it again here today as well. Iowa was the beneficiary of some major home cooking in shooting 47 free throws to the Hoosiers 19. That won’t occur here on a neutral court. I actually have Indiana pegged as making some noise in this tournament, and for that to occur, they have to get by Iowa first. I expect them to do just that.
College Basketball Odds: Indiana 80, Iowa 75
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