In the intensely competitive Big XII, every game counts, and even more so when seven of the conference's ten teams are jockeying for spots in the NCAA Tournament. No. 2 Kansas and No. 25 Baylor both finished the week unscathed, but one will suffer another loss in this grind of a conference on Tuesday night.
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HOW THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
When the Jayhawks are rolling they’re almost impossible to beat. Kansas has four players averaging double digits and an assortment of role players that each provide valuable help off the bench. There are very few teams as deep as the Jayhawks in the country and that's one of the reasons they’re so tough to beat.
In Kansas' win over in-state rival Kansas St over the weekend, it was the usual three starters that gave the Jayhawks the most production in the win. Frank Mason III, Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden Jr. all shot at least 50 percent from the floor and combined to go 14-for-25 for 42 of the Jayhawks' 72 points on the night.
All three of these players are tremendously talented and each one is capable of carrying the team with a hot hand on any given night. A win here for the Jayhawks effectively gives them at least a share of the Big XII regular season title barring Kansas losing its final three games.
HOW THE BAYLOR BEARS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Baylor had a relative offensive explosion in its two games this past week with big wins over No. 13 Iowa St and No. 24 Texas.
Johnathan Motley has been the star for Baylor the last two games. Motley dominated Iowa St like he did earlier in the season, putting up a 27-10 to match his 27-13 from earlier in the season. Even more impressive though was his game against the stout Longhorns' defense. Motley put up 24 points on 12-of-13 shooting and helped the Bears dominate in a 14 point win in Austin.
If Motley can continue this offensive output, the Bears have a great shot to knock off the Jayhawks.
The Bears showed they can play some defense against Texas as well. Baylor forced 14 Texas turnovers and held the Longhorns to just 41.5 percent shooting from the field and 22.2 percent shooting beyond the arc. Kansas has a lot more offensive weapons than Texas does though, so it will be tough for Baylor to repeat this performance.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Kansas has been a superb basketball team ATS this season with a 16-8 overall record against the closing number and a 5-3 ATS mark on the road. The under has been a great play in Jayhawks' games this season as well with 16 of their 24 games combining to go under the total, including seven of their eight road games.
The Bears haven't been nearly as stellar for bettors this season. Baylor holds an 8-12-1 ATS record and has only covered four of 12 when at home. The over has been a great bet for Bears' games this season with two thirds of their home games surpassing the total.
When these teams met in Lawrence earlier this year, Kansas routed Baylor by 28 points and totally shut Motley down. Motley hit just 2-of-8 shots from the field and pulled down just six boards allowing the Jayhawks to run wild on the Bears.
Look for Kansas to shut him down again and move within one more win of locking down an insane twelfth straight conference title.
Kansas 78, Baylor 70
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