The Michigan State Spartans might have the deepest team in America this season, especially when it comes to their backcourt. That said, Tom Izzo and the gang are sure to be underdogs in their first legitimate test of the season against the Kansas Jayhawks in Chicago on Tuesday night.
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HOW THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Jayhawks need to be a faster team this year if they want to be a championship contender, but they have the pieces of the puzzle here to do it.
Bill Self claims that he's going to use both Frank Mason and Devonte Graham on the court at the same time to have multiple players who can start or finish a break. The Jayhawks are giving up a lot of size by letting both of these guys play at the same time, and speed is going to have to be the overwhelming factor in their success. Michigan State isn't known as a running team and is going to try to slow the Jayhawks down, but KU has to continue to press forward with its two point guards on the court at the same time.
Perry Ellis and Wayne Selden Jr. are both back as well. Neither one was a great shooter last year, particularly Selden with his 38.2 shooting percentage. Both expect to make big improvements this year in terms of efficiency, and Self believes that having these four on the court at the same time could be the winning formula to get back to a championship level.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
We expect to see Denzel Valentine on the short list for Player of the Year honors in the Big Ten and perhaps nationally this season. We suspect he'll average at least 15 points, five boards and five assists per game, and he's pretty much going to have to do so without a legitimate point guard on the roster.
Where the Spartans are going to kill teams this year is from beyond the arc. They aren't going to try to play fast, but they can still put up points in a hurry because Valentine, Eron Harris and Bryn Forbes might make up the best trio of three-point shooters in America. Last season, the Spartans shot 38.5 percent from downtown, but there's a real chance they could hit 40 percent this year, something which would make them all the more formidable.
If the Spartans are leading down the stretch though, knowing that there could be problems putting games away. This was one of the worst foul shooting teams in America last year at 63.2 percent, though the two worst offenders from last season, Branden Dawson and Gavin Schilling won't be in the lineup for this one. Dawson has graduated, while Schilling is going to likely miss out on the first couple weeks of the year with a toe injury.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We suspect this is just going to be one of these really darn good basketball games. Both of these teams are fairly undersized and are going to be counting on their guards, but they're going to be asked to have significantly different roles from one another.
Michigan State's three-point shooting is going to be fantastic, but we think Izzo is going to need just a little bit of time to get Harris and Valentine working well together. Missing out on Schilling is going to be a big problem in the low post, as we're not sure Matt Costello and Deyonta Davis can man the fort.
Kansas' speed will ultimately win the day on Tuesday night, but this could be a real war and is going to be a close call.
Kansas 72, Michigan State 69
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