Things could've gotten weird for the Kansas Jayhawks in a hurry. They lost games against West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Iowa State on the road in the last few weeks, and they could've easily been beaten by Kentucky. Instead, they rallied, knocked off the Wildcats in OT, and the coast could clear up for a week or so at this point. The Kansas State Wildcats really shouldn't be putting up all that much of a fight in the Phog on Wednesday.
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HOW THE KANSAS STATE WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats commit far too many turnovers at 13.3 per game. Against the Kansas defense, this could end up getting ugly if they aren't careful. Anything less than a dozen turnovers would be a triumph and would certainly keep this game available to be covered.
Anything more than 14 or 15, and the Wildcats could be in the danger zone of getting run out of Lawrence by three or four touchdowns.
With Kamau Stokes likely out with a leg injury, the Wildcats are going to scramble to find three-point shots. There isn't another man on the team averaging more than a single three-pointer made per game. Someone, whether it be Stephen Hurt or Barry Brown has to step up from beyond the arc to help supplement the inside game of Wesley Iwundu if there's any chance to cover this spread.
HOW THE KANSAS JAYHAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This would be a really bad spot for a letdown for the Jayhawks off of the OT win over Kentucky, but it would be completely understandable. The only relatively easy foe which KU played against since the middle of January was TCU, and even that game produced a 70-63 win and non-cover as a 22.5-point favorite.
Stars rise to the occasion in big games though, and we really saw Wayne Selden at his best on Saturday when he filled the box score with 33 points. The rest of the team around him wasn't anything to write home about, but it's clear that when either Selden or Perry Ellis or Frank Mason or Devonte' Graham have themselves superstar types of nights, the Jayhawks aren't getting beaten as long as the rest of the players around them step into their roles and at the very least bring their B-games.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We get the feeling the Wildcats are going to eke out a cover in this game, albeit against a big time spread.
The Jayhawks are great three-point shooters, especially here at home where they're knocking down over 46 percent from deep for the season. However, we think this is an off night waiting to happen. Kansas shot just 43.3 percent against TCU and went 5-of-20 from long range.
Quietly, the Kansas State defense is allowing teams to shoot 28.7 percent from downtown this year, and if that's where the Jayhawks are going to be stuck in this one, they aren't going to have a legitimate chance to cover this NCAAB game.
There's far too much talent here for Kansas to get beat, but given the choice, we'll take the points with the visitors in this Sunflower State showdown.
Kansas 73, Kansas State 61
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