While every other team in the South Region waits go get going, the Kansas State Wildcats got the nerves of competing in the grandest spectacle out of the way by knocking off Wake Forest Tuesday in a play-in game. The Wildcats have a short turnaround, heading to Sacramento for a showdown with the Cincinnati Bearcats. Bruce Weber inspired his team with anecdotes of how playing in the First Four is an advantage. We’ll see how good of a story teller he is.
This war on the floor will go down Friday, March 17, 2017, at 7:27 p.m. ET at the Golden 1 Center. The game will be televised live on truTV. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Friday schedule.
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There’s plenty to be said both good and bad about playing in the First Four. Of course it’s bad when you lose, but can it be advantageous for the victor? The Wildcats certainly hope so. Getting that first game, with all the nerves and emotion, out of the way is huge, and the Cats head to northern California with a victory to show for it. K-State defeated Wake Forest 95-88 as a 1-point favorite on Tuesday, covering the spread for a fifth consecutive game. After struggling offensively through the last half of the Big 12 season and into the conference tournament, the Cats had a breakout game with their second-highest scoring output of the season to easily cash the over.
Cincinnati won 29 games, finished second in the American Athletic Conference, earned a No. 18 national ranking and got zero respect from the committee, according to Mick Cronin. That could be because of their 2-4 SU and ATS record against top-25 teams, or it could be the bias against teams from what are considered non-power conferences. The Bearcats played one of the Big 12’s best earlier this season, defeating Iowa State in overtime, winning outright as a 6.5-point dog. Cincy went 4-1 ATS in its last five outings.
Key Stat
Cincinnati has always been a defense-first program and that didn’t change this season. Under Bob Huggins through the 1990s and into the early 2000s, the Bearcats achieved unprecedented success, and it was based on defense. And once again the Bearcats are enjoying success because of their defensive prowess. Cincy ranks fifth in the country by surrendering just 60.8 points per game and holds opponents to a 38.5 field goal percentage, the eighth-best mark.
Allowing 70 or more points in a game just eight times during the year, the Bearcats allow only 91.9 points per 100 possessions, the best rating in the AAC and the ninth-best in the country. Three of their losses came when giving up at least 70 points, so playing shut down defense is important. It’s also huge since the Bearcats aren’t the most explosive offense team in the country.
Scheduling Situation
There is history on K-State’s side. There’s also a long plane ride and a tough Cincinnati team waiting for them in California. Every year since the Tournament expanded in 2011 at least one team not seeded No. 16 has advanced and won at least one more game after the First Four. K-State could be the team this year.
The Wildcats played in arguably the toughest conference, which should prepare them for what lies ahead. And they put together their best offensive showing in two months, beating the Demon Deacons 95-88. But that was against a Wake Forest team that doesn’t play defense. Playing the First Four will help at the outset, but K-State has been too inconsistent offensively all season and the whirlwind last few days will eventually catch up to them.
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The Bearcats are still steamed about their AAC title game loss to SMU where their patented defense let them down. Cincy couldn’t slow down the Mustangs, who galloped to a 71-56 win, denying the Bearcats their first conference title since 2004. Cincinnati will be focused on stopping the K-State front line, which has an advantage with Wesley Iwundu, D.J. Johnson and Dean Wade, three athletic bigs who can run the floor.
And because of their active front line, the Jayhawks could give the Bearcats fits. Not only can those three score, they do things traditional front court players don’t. And if the group produces with a balanced attack, the upset is quite possible. But playing on Friday gives Cincinnati an extra day to prepare and that defense is just too good for the Wildcats to enjoy the same success they had against Wake. The Bearcats will be a slight favorite, but they should cover easily.
College Basketball Odds: Cincinnati 73, Kansas State 65
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