Welcome back Kentucky Wildcats. The Cats looked lost during their first four-game losing streak under John Calipari, but Coach Cal never panicked and his team finally ended their slide with an aggressive approach and playing with a sense of urgency. It’s hard to imagine Kentucky not being nationally ranked and even harder to imagine a NCAA Tournament without the Wildcats. They did drop out of the rankings, but UK improved its odds of reaching the dance and could all but secure an invitation with a road win over the Arkansas Razorbacks on Tuesday.
This war on the floor will go down Tuesday, February 20, 2018, at 9 p.m. ET at Bud Walton Arena. The game will be televised live on ESPN. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Tuesday schedule.
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Kentucky had an impressive win at West Virginia last month and it appeared as though the young Cats were ready to turn it on for the last month of SEC play. Well, it didn’t happen. UK barely got by Vanderbilt in overtime the next game then lost four straight while going 0-5 ATS. The Wildcats stopped the slide with a win and cover over Alabama on Saturday, but they’ve dropped their last four SEC road games and are just 2-5 ATS on the road during league play.
Mike Anderson has his Razorbacks in the thick of the NCAA Tournament discussion as they look for their third trip in the last four years. Their current four-game winning streak has helped, as has their 14-1 record inside Walton Arena. The Hogs have covered each of the last four games with three of those coming at home. They beat No. 21 Texas AM 94-75 on Saturday and have won their last three home contests by an average of nearly 18 points.
Key Stat
The Wildcats have struggled for a good part of the season but it hasn’t been because of their defense. They lead the SEC and are second nationally in guarding the three, holding teams to 29 percent overall and 26.4 percent in league games. The Cats also rank 38th nationally in overall field goal percentage defense at 41.1 percent.
Two teams were held below 70 points during their four-game losing streak and those are games the Wildcats won in the past. However, this year it isn’t happening because the offense has yet to find a rhythm.
With players struggling to consistently score the basketball, we might expect the Wildcats to slip a bit on the defensive side. But that hasn’t happened. They allow over 70 points per game, but their pace dictates that. When the team puts a complete 40 minutes together they are tough to beat.
Player to Watch
Kentucky is loaded with talented freshmen, but the Razorbacks have a good one in Daniel Gafford. Gafford scored 18 points in the win over Texas AM and helped the Hogs outrebound the SEC leaders by a 45-33 margin on Saturday.
Gafford hit 7 of 8 shots to reach double figures for the fifth straight game and in that span he’s connected on 29 of 41 field goals for a whopping 70.7 percent.
Gafford is the fourth-most accurate shooter in the SEC at 62.3 percent and it’s easy to have a high percentage when the bulk of his field goals are at point-blank range. He’s dominated inside with his large frame and will be a handful for the Cats to defend.
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Even in their win over Alabama, which ended a four-game slide, the Wildcats didn’t look like a team ready to challenge for a top spot in the SEC. Numerous holes remain on offense and they just haven’t figured things out. The Cats lack leadership and we haven’t seen the youngsters develop into the team most thought they would be.
That doesn’t mean UK can’t win on the road, but they’ve struggled lately and Fayetteville isn’t a place to work out the kinks. I like Arkansas’ mix of talent and Gafford is a stud. He’ll dominate down low putting pressure on UK’s defense, and that means good looks for Jaylen Barford and Daryl Macon.
The Hogs are in a stretch where they can help their cause and beating Kentucky at home will be a feather in their cap. They’ve been solid at Walton Arena and as much as I like UK, they Hogs get it done in a big way.
College Basketball Odds: Arkansas 78, Kentucky 71
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