On paper this shouldn’t be much of a game. And if the first meeting between the teams is any indication, it won’t be. The Texas AM Aggies aren’t going to the big dance, they aren’t even on the bubble and they likely won’t be invited to any postseason tournament that doesn’t begin with an N. Still, that doesn’t mean they won’t be pumped to play this game and a win over the SEC leading Kentucky Wildcats would certainly make their season.
This war on the floor will go down Saturday, March 4, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Reed Arena. The game will be televised live on CBS. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Saturday schedule.
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For as good as everyone feels the Wildcats are or should be, the fact remains that they squeaked out a few victories in games they could have easily lost. Tuesday’s contest with Vanderbilt was one of those games. Kentucky spotted Vandy an early 19-point lead and needed the entire 40 minutes to eventually put the Dores away in a 73-67 win. The Wildcats were a 10.5-point favorite at home and failed to cover. Since opening SEC play with three convincing wins, the Wildcats have looked average. They are 12-3 since then and have won seven straight, but the Cats are just 4-11 ATS and are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
Though the Aggies aren’t going anywhere this postseason, they still have plenty to play for. Riding a two-game winning streak, they could close the regular season with a .500 record in SEC play, which would be something to lean on. The Aggies could also match a season-high winning streak. But that only happens with a win over the No. 9 team in the country. The Aggies get the game at home, where they’ve won three straight and four out of five. But they haven’t faced any of the 20-win teams in the league. The Aggies were a 14.5-point dog when they visited Lexington two months ago and even home court advantage likely won’t change that too much.
Last Meeting
The Aggies tried a bold strategy when the teams played in January. Kentucky’s 42-point win may have given the Cats the feeling that they could just show up and a win is theirs. It wasn’t much of a game with UK bursting out to a 12-point lead less than four minutes in and extending it to 20. On that night, however, no one could have beaten Kentucky. The Wildcats shot 54 percent from the floor and made 13 three-pointers, building the lead to nearly a half century at one point.
“They just hit us on a good night. That’s as good as we’ll play,” John Calipari said after the game. If that’s the case, the Aggies might have a shot in this one. The Cats aren’t playing that well right now, at least by their standards, and though they’ve won seven straight they are just 3-4 ATS. And both conference losses came on the road, including a bewildering defeat at Tennessee. So there could be a chance at the upset for the Aggies in this one.
Player to Watch
The Wildcats have received some big scoring games from Malik Monk, but they are a much better offensive club and a difficult team to defend when they’re spreading the ball around. Monk has scored 60 points in the last two games, but the Cats’ offensive efficiency is below what they normally average. That’s because De’Aaron Fox missed the Florida game and came off the bench against Vandy.
Fox is another offensive weapon and takes his share of shots. He creates by driving to the basket and making a high percentage of two-point attempts. And he also spreads the floor, allowing his teammates open looks. With Fox back in the lineup, expect a more efficient unit. And the Cats already dropped a hundred on the Aggies earlier.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Saying a team is not playing well after winning seven straight tells you a little something about that team. Kentucky is the class of the SEC and most expect them to blow out teams with all the talent they have. But being the best means you’re going to get the best from everyone else, and the Cats haven’t adjusted.
UK is a more talented team and will win this game. But the question is can the Aggies be more competitive than the first meeting. The Cats played as well as they can in that earlier game and won by 42 points. Playing half as well should mean a 21-point margin. The Aggies will be a double-digit underdog, but Kentucky is looking ahead and will use this game as a primer. Take the Cats minus the points.
College Basketball Odds: Kentucky 83, Texas AM 65
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