The Wildcats took their undefeated run all the way to the Final Four last year. They’re team isn’t quite as stacked this time around, but like many elite teams, odds makers are giving them just a bit too much credit as they continue struggling against the pointspread.
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HOW THE KENTUKCY WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats’ only real challenge this season was a showdown against Duke and they won that game by 11-points.
Kentucky is averaging 18.3 more points per game than their opponents here in the early going.
The Wildcats have already seemingly replaced their seven players who bolted for the NBA thanks to—arguably—the best recruiting class in the nation.
Guard Jamal Murray and forward Skal Labissiere are already making names for themselves six games into their college careers. Each have at least 14.7 PPG, ranking first and second on the team in scoring. Murray also provides creativity with the ball and the ability to make plays out of nothing. Labissiere, meanwhile, is a beast inside on defense having already accrued 14 blocks.
An elbow injury to guard Tyler Ulis is a concern. The second year guard is the team’s top scoring returning player with 13.2 PPG. He may be back in time for Thursday, but even if he isn’t, the Wildcats have the depth to overcome his loss. They no longer have to rotate upwards of ten players throughout the game, but still have plenty of additional talent when factoring players like Isaiah Briscoe, Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee.
Poythress is an interesting player in his own right. The vet has been perplexing during his Kentucky career, a model of inconsistencies. Still, he’s got the defensive prowess to team up with Labissiere to cause havoc for the opposition. The team is already out rebounding the opposition by nearly 16 rebounds per game and has done an excellent job forcing the opposition into low percentage shots and limiting them to 39.1 percent shooting from the floor.
As for the opposition, UCLA has won just two games ATS all season, going 2-5 and just one over their last four games.
HOW THE UCLA BRUINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
A 77-45 win over CSU Northridge on Sunday got the Bruins back over .500 for the season and back in the win column ATS.
They get the pleasure of taking on a Kentucky team that’ll consider the season a major disappointment without reaching the Final Four again.
Of course, with Kentucky’s big expectations, comes skewed spreads that bettors can use to cash in. The Wildcats, after all, have dropped three straight ATS. They were favored by over 20-points in each of those three games.
Amongst the returning players for the Bruins is center Tony Parker who averaged 8.3 RPG in the NCAA Tournament and should continue to grow. Fellow big man Thomas Walsh also gives UCLA size that could help keep them in the game. The 7-footer played very well in the U.S. U19 team at the FIBA World Championships. He brings additional growth as a player from that experience.
Both Parker and Welsh are getting plenty of playing time early and have combined for 26.1 PPG with Park leading the way in rebounds with 12.1 per game and Welsh topping the team in blocks with nine.
It’ll be important for the Bruins to take care of business on defense as the Wildcats are too good to beat in a shootout, particularly considering Kentucky’s defensive prowess.
ANAYLSIS AN PREDICTION
UCLA has found itself in the underdog role just once this NCAAB season, and ended up falling 92-73 to Kansas in that game. The Bruins let the Jayhawks have way too many open shots as they shot 54.2 percent from the floor.
Kentucky, meanwhile, has already proven itself against some of the nation’s better talent with a commanding win over Duke. Look for a strong road win on Thursday.
Kentucky 81, UCLA 69
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