The schedule doesn’t get any easier for this Auburn team which coach Bruce Pearl has admitted to having lost confidence after numerous injuries and three straight SEC losses. The depth issues for the Tigers have not allowed them to challenge teams defensively, a trademark of Pearl’s teams during his tenure at Tennessee.
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HOW THE KENTUCKY WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
One constant throughout the season and into SEC play has been the performances of Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray. Isaiah Briscoe certainly has his moments and remains a big part of this team, but the two-man attack of Ulis and Murray could make up the best backcourt in the country.
Murray continues to take a high volume of shots each game, but this has turned into a lot of points. The freshman is also improving his decision-making and becoming a more efficient player on the court. Meanwhile, Ulis provided big scoring efforts against Ole Miss, LSU and Mississippi State and is averaging an impressive 18 points and 7.3 assists in four conference games. As long as they are on the floor, Kentucky has a good chance of winning any game.
Marcus Lee and Alex Poythress have been better than expected at the starting spots in the frontcourt. They play good defense, rebound well and can score when given the chance. When both are playing, Kentucky can more than hold its own in the low post. The problems come when either is injured, needs rest or gets in foul trouble.
While the two starters have to do their best to stay on the court, they won’t play 40 minutes per game. Kentucky needs some of the reserves, especially Skal Labissiere, to step up and contribute at a higher level.
HOW THE AUBURN TIGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
If Auburn was struggling due to execution, poor shooting, or defensive breakdowns, coach Bruce Pearl might have an easier time coping. But Pearl is not a doctor. He can’t fix Tahj Shamsid-Deen’s shoulder or the knees of T.J. Dunans and New Williams. The injuries have allowed freshman Horace Spencer and Bryce Brown to become a part of the team’s future much sooner.
With Shamsid-Deen and Dunans still out, the Tigers need production from their senior leader Cinmeon Bowers, who has come off the bench for six straight games and has seen his numbers plummet. Bowers has failed to score in double-figures in four straight games. His longest streak last season, when he nearly averaged a double-double, was two games.
Auburn could take advantage of the Wildcats’ poor percentage from the charity stripe. Over the past month, it seems free-throw shooting for Kentucky has gone from below average to bad to a full-blown crisis.
It’s been a major problem for a team that spends so much time finishing in the paint, where there is a lot of contact. This will especially be an issue late in games as Kentucky tries to close out a lead. There haven’t been many single-digit-point games this year, but Auburn could take advantage in the later stages.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
A lack of healthy bodies at the guard position is poison against Kentucky’s dynamic backcourt and Auburn could be in for another long afternoon. The Tigers did get Williams back for the last game, but he was visibly affected by his injury. Shamsid-Deen and Dunans remain out and their absence is a green light for Kentucky’s Ulis and Murray to light up the scoreboard. The injuries also prevent Auburn from running Pearl’s trademark press, which made him a nationally-recognized coach at UW Milwaukee and Tennessee. Pearl insisted after the team’s third straight loss and fourth in five games overall, that effort wasn’t an issue. However, the Tigers will need more than a strong effort to upend the Wildcats, and they just don’t have the horses right now.
Kentucky 79, Auburn 66
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