Kentucky was on the verge of back-to-back outright SEC regular season championships for the first time in 20 years. But the Wildcats have lost two of their last three games to put that in jeopardy. The Gators are looking to end a three-game losing streak and a four-game slide to the Wildcats.
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HOW THE KENTUCKY WILDCATS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Wildcats were exposed in Saturday’s loss to Vanderbilt. The inconsistent front line was out-sized and out-played by the Commodores and the result was a loss that dropped Kentucky back into a first-place tie with Texas AM.
As good as Kentucky’s backcourt of Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray is, the Cats can’t survive with at least a little help from their bigs. They need a consistent inside presence that can score an easy basket, grab an important rebound and give the defense something to worry about.
Alex Poythress should be that presence and very well could be. He’s coming off his second knee surgery in as many years and may need some time to get into a rhythm after missing several games. Against Vanderbilt, the rest of the front line gave the Cats “nothing” in the words of their head coach.
Simply put, Kentucky needs more production from its front court players. Poythress needs to be more consistent and Derek Willis, who missed the last two games with an ankle injury, needs to be on the floor. Some help up front will allow Ulis and Murray to play their game, instead of leaving it up to them to carry the squad.
HOW THE FLORIDA GATORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
With three straight losses and four defeats in the last five games, Florida saw its NCAA Tournament hopes all but disappear. A win over the league-leaders could revive their chances as long as the Gators get out of the gate quickly.
Slow starts have doomed Florida during its slide and Saturday’s loss to LSU was no different. The Gators made a valiant comeback, showing off their determination, but it was ultimately too little, too late. They just don’t have enough firepower to overcome large deficits.
The Gators should look to their post players against Kentucky’s sketchy front line. Forwards Dorian Finney-Smith and Devin Robinson, and center John Egbunu combined for 51 points against LSU, and nearly brought the team back from an 18-point deficit. The Cats are hurting up front and this is the area to exploit.
Point guard KeVaughn Allen has to take care of the basketball and hold his own against UK’s talented backcourt. Play smart and get the ball inside gives the Gators the best opportunity of pulling off the upset.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
When Kentucky doesn’t play well, more often than not it’s because the front line didn’t play well. Only four players scored in Saturday’s loss to Vanderbilt, and the front line of Poythress, Marcus Lee, Isaac Humphries and Skal Labissiere combined for, well, not much. Getting Willis back in the lineup will help. When Willis is hustling and rebounding and making threes, he stretches the defense and opens the driving lanes. The Wildcats just haven’t gotten enough from their big men and when Ulis or Murray has an off-shooting night, the team struggles. The good news for Kentucky is that the backcourt hasn’t been off much this season, and the big men will face a different challenge. Florida isn’t as deep along the front line and, while it will still be a difficult matchup, the Wildcats should be able to handle the Gators down low. Ulis hasn’t had many bad games and its more unlikely that he has two in a row. Ulis and Murray will again carry the team, and one or more of the bigs will do a better job.
Kentucky 78, Florida 71
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