The Hawaii Warriors probably had their faint at-large NCAA Tournament hopes go away down the stretch of the season when they were beaten twice in their last four regular season games. They've played like a team on a mission here in Anaheim, crushing Cal State Fullerton and UC Santa Barbara en route to the Big West Final, and they'll hope to make short work of the Long Beach State 49ers as well to capture the league's automatic bid to the dance.
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HOW THE LONG BEACH STATE 49ERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Long Beach State had a good season in the Big West, including sweeping Hawaii in the regular season. The team has won five games in a row, including a couple really close games that went down to the wire.
Still, there isn't a lot of experience here. The 49ers are learning as the season goes on, but they only have one man in their rotation in Travis Hammonds that’s been here for more than two years.
The 49ers have been incredibly aggressive all season long and have gotten to the foul line a ton. They reached the charity stripe at least 30 times in both of the games against the Warriors, and they ended up taking 34 free throws, making 28 in the Big West semis against UC Irvine. LBSU is averaging 22 free throws per game. Hawaii is actually averaging 26 per game, tops in the Big West, but if the 49ers want to have a shot in this one, they need to be the aggressors and get to the charity stripe more often.
HOW THE HAWAII WARRIORS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This Hawaii team is just so hard to try to beat when it's got everything rolling offensively. The Warriors play very tight man-to-man defense and average over seven steals per game as a result, and they love to get out in transition when opportunities present themselves to do so.
The Warriors aren't deep, but they've got senior leaders in Stefan Jankovic and Aaron Valdes, who also happen to be their two top scorers. Those men combined for 43 points and 17 boards in the Big West semis against UC Santa Barbara, and if they do that again in this one, they'll very likely be dancing.
The X-Factor is Roderick Bobbitt. Here in Anaheim, Bobbitt already has eight steals to go with his 35 points, and he's turning into a force on both ends of the court.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We're not really all that sure why the Warriors have failed against Long Beach State twice this year. Color us unimpressed with the Niners. They're not experienced, they don't shoot a ton of threes, they're only just barely outrebounding their foes, and their defensive splits have been awful, even by Big West standards.
If this is a close game though, we'll take our chances with Long Beach State. It's just had that knack for winning the tight games, and no one would argue that it has overachieved all year long.
That said, we don't think this game is going to end up being all that close. Hawaii seems like a team on a mission right now, and it would only be fitting to see it get to the dance by avenging two of its five losses from the regular season.
Jankovic, Valdes and Bobbitt will recognize their potential in this game and put the 49ers away relatively early in the Big West Championship Game.
Hawaii 79, Long Beach State 61
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