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The North Carolina Tar Heels are at the top of the pack in the ACC right now. But with a vicious schedule to close out the regular season and four teams within two games in the loss column, things could be much different in two weeks. In order for the Tar Heels to maintain their perch, they need to beat the Louisville Cardinals on Wednesday. If the Cards win at the Dean Dome, something no other team has been able to do this season, there will be a tie at the top, which is fitting for the toughest conference in college basketball.
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For Louisville to gain a share of first place in the conference it will have to beat the Tar Heels on the road. Not an easy task since UNC is undefeated at the Dean Dome this season and the Cardinals are average, at best, away from home. In their only true non-conference road game, the Cards slipped past Grand Canyon 79-70 back in December. Louisville is 4-3 in away games during ACC play and 4-2-1 ATS. The Cards edged past Syracuse, 76-72, in overtime as a 3-point favorite in their most recent road outing.
The Tar Heels have a huge home court advantage and they’ve used it to remain in first place. UNC hasn’t lost at the Dean Dome this season going 14-0 SU and 9-4 ATS. The Heels have just one loss on their floor over the past two seasons, that coming to Duke last February in a 74-73 decision. UNC took apart a good Virginia team on Saturday, defeating the Cavaliers 65-41, and views this contest as a must win with two of the final three regular season matchups on the road, including a rematch with the Cavs in Charlottesville.
Key Stat
The tremendous balance of the Tar Heels has allowed them to lead the ACC and rank sixth nationally in scoring at nearly 87 points per game. Of course that number was inflated during the non-conference schedule when the Heels reached the century mark four times and scored an average of 90 points in their seven home games. But the offense has been almost as good during league play. UNC is scoring 86.7 points per game at the Dean Dome in ACC action, and that includes a season-low home output in its 65-41 win over UVA on Saturday.
With their inside out game featuring Justin Jackson and Joel Berry, the Heels’ offensive efficiency of 122.9 is the fourth-best in the country, according to kenpom.com, and it allowed them to dismantle Virginia’s top ranked defense on Saturday. The point total was low for UNC standards, but the efficiency was at its best against a UVA team that slows the pace.
Player to Watch
With a brutal stretch of games to close out the season, the Tar Heels need everybody at their best. One player going beyond is Jackson, who reached the 20-point mark in a game for the 14th time this season by slicing apart Virginia’s vaunted defense for 20 on Saturday. Jackson scored 18 of his points in the first half as UNC built a big lead and never allowed the Cavs to catch up.
And he was able to score from anywhere on the court, something his gifted 6-8 frame allows him to do. Jackson sliced to the hoop for layups and three-point plays and canned 4 of 8 from three-point territory to frustrate the Cavaliers. His ability to run the floor will pose a problem for Louisville’s defense as well.
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A big game for both teams with first place in the ACC at stake, but it looms large for the Tar Heels, who hit the road for their next two. Keeping hold of the top spot likely means a No. 1 seed for UNC in the NCAA Tournament and that would be a big boost for the club. And the Heels are unbeatable at the Dean Dome, which is another advantage.
The frontcourt of Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Jackson, along with the return of Theo Pinson gives UNC a slight edge over Louisville’s bigs, but the play of Jackson and Pinson on the wing is what makes the Heels lethal. The Cards are a solid defensive club, but like Virginia, they will have a tough time stopping the wings. Louisville gave up a season-high 90 in a win over Virginia Tech on Saturday and the group will be reeling heading to Chapel Hill.
College Basketball Odds: North Carolina 78, Louisville 71
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