The Duke Blue Devils are back at home in front of the Cameron Crazies on Monday in the middle game of a three-game home stand. The duel against the Louisville Cardinals looked like a game which would probably be won a few weeks ago, but at this point, it would be completely understandable if the Dookies were dogs on their home floor.
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SCHEDULING
The Blue Devils are really losing traction in a hurry, and they really could slip to the wrong side of the NCAA Tournament bubble if this three-game home stand doesn't end up going well (especially with games at North Carolina and Louisville coming after that). The pressure has to be mounting on Coach K and the gang to right this ship, but with Amile Jefferson not coming back to the lineup any time in the near future, the Dookies are who they've been and not much more than that.
Still, Duke is 6-4-1 ATS at home this season, and it isn't often that you see this team lose three games in a row on its home court.
The Cardinals are playing on Saturday followed by Monday as well this week, but the game at home against Boston College really shouldn't be much of a concern. Instead, it's this road game at Duke which will have Louisville's attention the whole week. We'd be more worried about live betting on the Cards against the Eagles in a potential look-ahead game than we are here against Duke on short rest at Cameron Indoor.
KEY MATCHUP
The Cardinals did a fantastic job against North Carolina last weekend in the low block, holding it to just 26 points in the paint. The Tar Heels absolutely make a living with their bigs and their guards getting to the hoop, and the fact that Louisville was able to shut that unit down makes us believe that Marshall Plumlee doesn't stand a chance in this game without Amile Jefferson in the fold.
Live bettors are going to have to be on their guard for Duke raining threes in this game. The Blue Devils are fantastic from long range as always at 38.5 percent, and Grayson Allen can really get going from the outside if he's given the chance to do so. The Cardinals' perimeter defense is going to be crucial in this game, and that might be the difference to winning and losing in live betting.
KEY STATS & TRENDS
The Blue Devils have been underdogs exactly four times at home since the 1994-95 season, which also happens to be the last time they didn’t get into the NCAA Tournament. All four times, they were dogs to North Carolina. There's a real chance that a Louisville team which was only +1 in a game which should've been won at Kentucky will break that streak in this game, and it'll be interesting to see how live bettors react to something that really is relatively unprecedented.
Louisville has opened up at 3-1 SU on the road in conference play, but the team is 0-5 ATS on the road since Christmas. That said, games against Virginia Tech, Georgia Tech, N.C. State and Kentucky were all missed opportunities at covers by just a single bucket, so if this spread gets a little wide early on in live betting one way or the other, there's a good chance that the final margin will end up being relatively close to what the spread originally was.
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