When the schedule makers get together and arrange the ACC/Big Ten Challenge, the hope is to put together the comparable teams on both sides. In the case of the Louisville Cardinals and the Michigan State Spartans though, the hope was to have a game which is anywhere near as good as the NCAA Tournament tussle between these two teams back in March, one which the Spartans won 76-70 in overtime.
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HOW THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This Louisville team might be undefeated at 5-0, but no one is going to confuse this outfit for the one which was in the Elite Eight last year. Terry Rozier, Montrezl Harrell and Wayne Blackshear are all gone, leaving Rick Pitino to essentially rebuild this team once again from the ground up.
There's some talent though, particularly in the frontcourt which can come up big in a spot like this against a somewhat undersized Michigan State outfit.
Mangok Mathiang and Chinanu Onuaku are the two men to remember coming into this game. These two men are both 6-foor-10 and have tremendous wing spans on defense, and they largely are the same player. They can't play on the court together for long stretches because of the need to have the ball handlers, but when they are out there, Louisville just needs to force the ball into their hands and let them do work.
We're also going to find out just how good this Louisville defense is at this point. Yes, the Cards are allowing just 51.2 points per game this season, but there hasn't been one reasonable team on the docket yet this year.
Remember though, that North Florida, a team which drops gobs on threes on everyone it faces, was held to 61 against this unit. That in and of itself gives hope for how Louisville can cover this game.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Spartans haven't had to play one of these defense-first teams yet this year, so these waters are a bit uncharted for them.
That said, when you've got the best player on the court, you can win and cover games without the rest of your team doing anything remarkable.
Denzel Valentine has been out of his mind this season, and he's certainly on the Naismith watch list at this point. He's already had a triple-double against Boston College and against Kansas, and he's got three games with at least 29 points scored. If Valentine gets going and starts stuffing the stat sheet again, the Cardinals are in a lot of trouble.
However, it's not like they aren't more players here. We still think that Eron Harris can become a huge contributor if he starts knocking down some threes off of the bench, and Bryn Forbes might be the most underrated pure shooter in the nation.
It's all here for the taking for the Spartans this year, and there's a reason they're sporting a Top 5 ranking heading into the new week.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Michigan State is going to be favored by a huge margin in this one, and it's probably justifiable. This though, is a much tougher basketball game for the No. 3 team in the nation than you might suspect.
The Cards can muck this game up just like they did in the dance last year. MSU can play that type of a grind-it-out game, but it would rather do some running and have the duel played in the 70s instead of the 60s.
Louisville just doesn't have enough cold-blooded shooters to ultimately finish this game off, but we think it will cover the large number anyway.
Michigan State 68, Louisville 62
Access live betting lines from your mobile device or tablet at BookMaker Sportsbook! You can wager on sporting events as they unfold on television with BookMaker’s live betting platform. Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The Louisville Cardinals and Michigan State Spartans will square off Wednesday, December 2, 2015, at 7:15 p.m. ET at the Jack Breslin Student Events Center. The matchup will be televised live on ESPN.
