Louisville’s No. 6 ranked defense played well against the Cavaliers back in January. holding them to just 63-points, but Louisville was unable to score to turn it into a win. After a 63-47 loss, the Cards will get another chance as they close out the season on Saturday, but things don’t get any easier as Virginia hosts the showdown at the John Paul Jones Arena.
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HOW THE LOUISVILLE CARDINALS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Cardinals have already handled the Virginia offense, it’s just a matter of actually putting some points on the board this time around.
Statistically, Louisville is actually the better offensive team. It’s scored 75.9 PPG, 5.1 more than the Cavaliers.
To cover the spread, the Cardinals will turn to Damion Lee and Trey Lewis. These two guards combined for just 10 points the last time they faced the Cavs, but overall, they’re averaging 27.6 PPG. They’ll need to score a lot closer to average this time around.
The Cards will also look for a better performance from Chinanu Onuaku. The 6’10” center gives some height to an otherwise short, but athletic lineup. He’s averaging 10 PPG and 8.6 RPG. He’s also notched 61 blocks, giving the Cardinals a weapon inside. Over his last five games, he’s scored at least 10 points in each game and is averaging 12 PPG and 10 RPG.
A big game from Onuaku and better performances from the starting five would allow the Cardinals to cover the spread. After shooting just 32.7 percent from the floor against Virginia, expect them to rebound. After all, they’re shooting 15 percent better than that on field goals overall.
HOW THE VIRGINIA CAVALIERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
History tells us how the Cavaliers can cover the spread. All they need is a repeat of what happened back in January.
The Cavs boast a defense ranked No. 3 in college basketball and couple that with a 48.8 percent shooting percentage on field goals. They’re also outrebounding their competition, recording six more boards per game.
In addition, the trends also back Virginia. The Cavs have covered the spread in six of their last seven games while the Cards are just 2-4-1 ATS in their last seven.
In terms of individual production, Virginia is deeper than Louisville inside with forward Anthony Gill to support their 7’0” center Mike Tobey. Tobey can matchup with Onuaku. Gill scored 13 against Louisville last time out tying Malcolm Brogdon for the team lead.
As for the backcourt, Brogdon is outscoring Lee by 2.3 PPG while London Perrantes and Lewis are neck-and-neck. The Cavaliers duo, however, have the better shooting percentages and can sink the ball from the perimeter.
ANALYSIS AND PREDICTION
Look for a similar song and dance to what we saw back in January. The Cavaliers are at home, so in theory this could be an even tougher matchup for Louisville.
Still, you cannot count on the Cardinals struggling that badly shooting the ball again and a better shooting percentage on their part will make this game a bit closer. Nevertheless, the Cavaliers are still the team to beat in this one and should win it handily.
Confidence is a big part of this sport and Virginia has it. The Cavs are ranked No. 4 in the nation, are on a strong stretch right now and have confidence knowing they destroyed the Cardinals just over a month ago. Louisville will be motivated for revenge in its season finale, but early struggles could be enough to shake their confidence.
Virginia 66, Louisville 53
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