Things have not gone well for Tubby Smith in his second season as the head coach of the Memphis Tigers. Six of Memphis’ top eight scorers from 2016-17 transferred out of the program after just one season under Smith and the program has had to rebuild everything from the ground up as a result. To the team’s credit, they have beaten everyone they were favored to beat so far this season and are sitting at 7-2. However now they face perhaps their toughest test yet in the Louisville Cardinals.
This war on the floor will go down Saturday, December 16, 2017, at 12 p.m. ET at Madison Square Garden in New York, New York. The game will be televised live on ESPN2. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Saturday schedule.
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David Padgett has not had a bad start at all despite being thrown into the fire. Louisville is off to a 7-2 start and picked up a decent win when the Cardinals knocked off Indiana. However, they were unable to beat the other two quality teams they faced, losing by two to Seton Hall and by nine to Purdue. The team has covered three straight after a 1-4 ATS start though.
Memphis has gotten pretty fortunate this season with a 3-0 record in one-possession games. The Tigers snuck by Samford by one and Northern Kentucky by two and then needed overtime to get past Mercer. Memphis is 3-4 ATS this season and failed to cover in the double-digit losses to both UAB and Alabama. The program has yet to win a non-home game yet as well.
Key Stats
Tubbyball has not looked good this season. While the Tigers have been fine on the defensive end, the offense has struggled to do anything positive. Memphis ranks outside of the top 200 in every major offensive category and you can already hear the grumblings from fans that prefer a more up-tempo style.
This team just cannot shoot the ball. As a whole, Memphis is hitting just 29.7 percent from three-point range and the Tigers are hitting 43.8 percent of their field goals. The Tigers have just two players hitting 50 percent or better from the floor, Kyvon Davenport and Jimario Rivers, and have been unable to generate much scoring as a result.
Unfortunately, this team does not have a go-to three-point shooter. No one is hitting better than 36.7 percent from downtown.
Matchup to Watch
One of the things that differentiates Louisville from Memphis is its size. The Cardinals boast two big men that can pull down boards in Ray Spalding and Anas Mahmoud. Spalding is 6’10 and hauling in 9.7 RPG, while Mahmoud is 7’0 and grabbing 7.7 rebounds per game. That has helped Louisville’s offense average 80 PPG despite not being particularly efficient with its shot selection.
Conversely, Memphis doesn’t really have a big man that can board. Davenport and Rivers are both 6’8, but neither one is a particularly great rebounder. The two combine to average 12.2 rebounds more or less because someone has to grab boards on this team, but neither are going to dominate in the paint. They will have a hard time matching up against Louisville’s big men.
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Both of these teams have deep benches and will constantly rotate players in and out of the lineup. However, Smith will play Davenport, Rivers, and Jeremiah Martin for huge minutes as they are his best offensive options and he needs points somehow.
Louisville will key in on that and hound those three all game long and force their teammates to make shots. Unfortunately for Memphis, the supporting cast has not proven it can do that yet. Look for Louisville to win this one in a rout.
College Basketball Odds: Louisville 82, Memphis 67
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