The LSU Tigers couldn’t make the NCAA Tournament with Ben Simmons last season and now they’re trying to stay out of the basement in the SEC. It’s going to take plenty of work down the stretch to do that. The Tigers haven’t won a game since the first week of the New Year and eight of the nine losses in that span have come by double-figures. Kentucky hasn’t played its best over the past week, but they shouldn’t have a problem disposing of LSU.
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It hasn’t been pretty for LSU and the results prove just how bad. The Tigers lost their ninth consecutive game, and second to Texas AM in that time, with an 85-73 verdict on Saturday. The 12-point margin is the second-closest during that stretch where the Tigers have gone 3-6 ATS. LSU’s lack of defense over that span has allowed opponents to average 89 points and the Tigers have cashed the over seven times in those nine games. One thing the Tigers have been good at this season is playing above the total. The over is 14-7 in games that had a closing total.
Kentucky is mired in a slump of its own after getting run off the court at Florida on Saturday. The Wildcats were supposed to be the class of the SEC this season, but after losing three times in four games, the Wildcats find themselves a game behind South Carolina and tied with the Gators for second place. Even the win was a nail-biter as the ‘Cats needed overtime to beat Georgia 90-81 as a 15.5-point favorite at Rupp Arena. UK is 0-4 ATS in that span and just 1-7 ATS in its last eight games, failing to cover five times as a double-digit favorite.
Player to Watch
After missing the Georgia game due to the flu, De’Aaron Fox tried to give it a go on Saturday against the Gators. But even a fully healthy Fox probably wouldn’t have made much a difference in UK’s loss. He was considered a game-time decision and held out of the starting lineup, but Fox did play 25 minutes and led the team with 19 points.
With a few extra days to recover, LSU will likely see the Fox that torched opponents during UK’s 17-2 start. Fox is the team’s second leading scorer with 16 points, and also contributes 5.5 assists and 4.4 rebounds per outing. He exited the game against South Carolina on Jan. 21 with an ankle injury and didn’t appear to be fully recovered when the ‘Cats lost at Tennessee a few days later. UK came back to defeat the Bulldogs in overtime when Fox sat with his illness. It’s evident part of the issues have to do with Fox’s health, but with him recovering, the Wildcats should not have a problem with LSU.
Key Stat
Playing defense has just been a suggestion in Baton Rouge this season. LSU has given up 80 or more points in a game 12 times this season and ranks 334th out of 351 teams in scoring defense at 81.2 points per contest. That number has been elevated during a nine-game losing streak in which the Tigers are surrendering 89 points per game and have allowed at least 92 points four times. They give up nearly 110 points per 100 possessions and their defensive efficiency rating according to Kenpom.com ranks LSU at No. 256.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Kentucky should win this game easily and the only question is can the Wildcats cover the spread. Having Fox healthy and back in the lineup makes UK a much different team. It will also help to get Mychal Mulder back after he also missed some time with an illness. The Fox/Mulder combo gives UK a supernatural advantage in the backcourt and it’s something the Tigers will have difficulty stopping.
After their little slump, the Wildcats realize they can’t win on talent alone. They need to actually play the game the right way. Florida beat UK to just about every loose ball. The Gators ran the floor well against a tough defense, and they pounded the glass. It should have been a good lesson for the young Cats and they’ll apply what they learned against an overmatched LSU club.
College Basketball Odds: Kentucky 93, LSU 75
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