In spite of the fact that the South Carolina Gamecocks became the first team to win 20 games this year in the SEC, there really isn't a strong feeling that they have any chance whatsoever to make a lot of noise in the NCAA Tournament. In fact, even after going on the road last weekend and upsetting Texas A&M, there's a distinct possibility that they'll be home underdogs to the unranked LSU Tigers on Wednesday night.
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HOW THE LSU TIGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
South Carolina has really rebounded the basketball well this year, and LSU has to make sure that it takes care of its responsibilities in the paint boxing out, particularly on the defensive end of the floor.
The Gamecocks thrive off of second-chance opportunities on offense, and if the Tigers can't at least hang in there and limit those offensive rebounds, this game could end up being a tremendous challenge.
Talent for talent, LSU clearly has the better side here as we see it, and it's not just Ben Simmons we're talking about either. Keith Hornsby scored 25 points against Mississippi State this past weekend, while Antonio Blakeney had 31 off the bench in 34 minutes. It's really impossible to beat this team when the rest of the roster is pitching in around Simmons, and that's going to be the overwhelming goal here in this game as well.
HOW THE SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It's really hard to look at the Gamecocks statistically and think they're anything to really write home about. They don't have an elite guard in the backcourt. Their closest thing to a dominant big man is Michael Carrera, who really is just a stretch four more than a center or traditional power forward. They turn the ball over far too often at 14.1 times per game.
And yet here South Carolina sits 20-3 with a chance to move into first place in the SEC this week.
Carrera is really going to be the key in this one. Both Simmons and Craig Victor have trouble at times defending out on the perimeter, and Carrera is the man who can really spread out this defense. That really leaves a lot of room for Mindaugas Kacinas and Laimonas Chatkevicius to operate in the middle of the floor.
It isn't an accident that both men are shooting beyond 52 percent from the field, and if both are in or near double-digits in scoring, that probably bodes well for SC.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Gamecocks have really shocked the world this year, going 15-5 ATS overall, including 7-2 ATS here at Colonial Life Arena. LSU has a history of putting together some really great NCAAB games against good foes, but it doesn't deserve to be favored in this one as we suspect it will be.
We just don't think the Tigers have the defense for a game like this one. South Carolina's defense is incredibly underrated, and if it can figure out how to take a couple of LSU's top dogs - even if one isn't named Simmons - out of the equation, we think it's going to take this game to help buoy its case to surprisingly win the SEC this season.
South Carolina 77, LSU 70
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