Ben Simmons is arguably the best player in college basketball, but he really doesn't have all that much of a team around him. The LSU Tigers are going to need to go on a real tear to get into the NCAA Tournament this year, and winning a road game against the Vanderbilt Commodores is really a must.
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HOW THE LSU TIGERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Simmons is a big piece to the puzzle for the Tigers for obvious reasons. The Montverde Academy star averages 19.3 points, 13.0 boards, 5.5 assists, 2.2 steals and 1.4 blocks per game. He's a ridiculous stat sheet stuffing superstar, but again, he can't do this alone.
Keith Hornsby and Craig Victor are both relatively new in the LSU lineup after both missed the first seven games of the year, and they're combining to average 30 points per game between them. If that keeps up, and Simmons keeps dominating on the glass and in the paint, this will all work for the Bayou Bengals.
Let's not forget that Antonio Blakeney and Tim Quarterman were both fantastic guards last year. Yes, both have taken a bit of a step back from an offensive perspective, but they can't ultimately get lost in the sauce with all of the rest of the offensive players on the court. The Tigers can't forget about playing defense, and allowing 76.2 points per game isn't going to cut it in the SEC season.
HOW THE VANDERBILT COMMODORES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Vanderbilt has played some big games this year against teams like Kansas, Purdue and Baylor, and in the case of all of those duels, the offense just didn't get enough going. The good news though, is that LSU doesn't seem to care all that much about coming up with stops. As a result, it would be surprising if the Commodores don't look a little more like themselves averaging 79.0 points per game.
With Luke Kornet out of the fold, Vandy is going to have to get more production out of Damian Jones. He's averaging 12.5 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, but he isn't able to stretch the floor with some shots from outside of the painted area like Kornet can from time to time.
That puts stress on Wade Baldwin IV, Matthew Fisher-Davis and Riley LaChance to knock down some shots on the outside, especially in transition, but we don't think there's anything stopping these men from having really good games.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Go back and look at the wins for LSU this year. The team beat American, Oral Roberts, Gardner-Webb, North Florida, South Alabama, Kennesaw State and McNeese State. There's just no proof that the Tigers are worth all that much in the SEC, and we have to wonder if they're even going to finish this season at .500.
The Commodores have quietly been very good at home at 3-1 ATS, and though they haven't played a particularly great schedule thus far at Memorial Gymnasium, we still trust them here in SEC play against an LSU team which we just don't value all that much.
Simmons could take over any game by himself, but the team around him just isn't all that good. Even if he has 20 points and 15 boards, there's nothing that says that'll be enough for LSU to even remotely stay close to covering this spread.
Vanderbilt 84, LSU 73
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