The Marquette Golden Eagles have won three games in a row, but this is a really tough week they've got on their hands. They're probably losing on Wednesday night against Seton Hall, and they're certainly going to be up against it versus the No. 6 Xavier Musketeers on Saturday afternoon in Cincinnati.
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HOW THE MARQUETTE GOLDEN EAGLES CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Golden Eagles aren't talented enough to win a game like this on the road if they're beating themselves. They didn't cover against the X-Men just two weeks ago when these teams played in Milwaukee, and that was in spite of the fact that they only turned the ball over nine times and picked up a dozen offensive rebounds.
It's tough to ask Marquette to play a much cleaner game than that, but against a defense which it shot 34.3 percent against in the first meeting, we really don't see much of a choice.
Almost quietly, the Musketeers rank No. 54 in the nation, allowing teams to shoot just 40.4 percent from the field, and long range shooting is virtually impossible against one of the lankier and more athletic teams in the Big East.
That's why the ball has to get down low to Henry Ellenson and Luke Fischer, and these two men really have to step up their game offensively. Duane Wilson, Hannif Cheatham and Jajuan Johnson won't be able to do enough from distance to keep up with the Musketeers in this one, so if this game is being covered, it has to be done in the paint with relatively easy shots.
HOW THE XAVIER MUSKETEERS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Musketeers have some minor injury concerns right now with James Farr and Tim Stainbrook. These two men have been battling minor injuries and are expected to be available on Wednesday night against St. John's. The Farr injury, in particular, is one which has to be overcome quickly for a game like this. Marquette has too many bigs for the Musketeers to go into this one shorthanded in the frontcourt.
Both Farr and Jalen Reynolds are going to have to be strong defensively against Fischer and Ellenson, and we've already proven if those two can get neutralized, the Golden Eagles are in a heck of a lot of trouble.
Offensively, we can't imagine the X-Men doing worse than 5-of-22 from three-point range like they shot against Marquette in the first go around. Still, they reached 74 points thanks to 19 points from the line and 20-of-37 shooting from inside the arc. Xavier must continue to pound the ball on the inside as well like we're asking the Golden Eagles to do. Whichever team does it better will probably cover this spread.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Golden Eagles really had no answers for Reynolds and Farr, who combined for 26 rebounds in just 43 total minutes on the court between them. We can't imagine that Ellenson and Fischer are going to make any further traction in this game, especially playing it out in Cincinnati.
Xavier enters this week at 13-4 ATS in its last 17 games overall and 41-20 ATS in its last 61 games played here at home. Those are both really good trends to keep up with going into this one, and more often than not, the Musketeers are probably covering this spread, even if it is a double-digit number to have to beat.
Xavier 76, Marquette 59
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