The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders won the Conference USA Tournament as a No. 2 seed last season. They’ll have a shot to do it as a No.1 seed on Saturday night when they run up against the No. 6 seed Marshall Thundering Herd. With this being the Herd’s fourth game in four days and the Blue Raiders third in three, the defenses could suffer which could see a bunch of points hit the scoreboard in the title game.
This war on the floor will go down Saturday, March 11, 2017, at 8:30 p.m. ET at the Legacy Arena at BJCC. The game will be televised live on CBSSN. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on Saturday’s college basketball schedule.
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The Blue Raiders went off the board favored in both regular season meetings between these programs. They went off the board as 9.5 point favorites with a game total of 164.5 when they hosted Marshall back in early January. They won that game by 12 points and the teams only combined for 126 points. In the rematch in Huntington, the Thundering Herd closed as 6.5 point underdogs and lost 97-86. The 183 points shattered the 157.5 point closing total to cash over bettor’s tickets.
MTSU finds itself installed 9 point favorites for the championship game with the total lined at 163. There’s been no line movement since the open with 55 percent of the tickets written supporting the tourney’s defending champs.
Key Matchup
In these teams’ last four overall meetings, the Blue Raiders have had their way offensively with the Thundering Herd’s defense. Save for scoring only 69 points in the team’s first meeting back on January 12, MTSU went for 83, 99, and 97 points in the other three skirmishes. Marshall’s defense is off the matador variety with it conceding an average of 84.0 points per game to rank out as the No. 345 scoring defense in the country. It’s ability to limit JaCorey Williams and company will be of utmost importance if Dan D’Antoni’s kids are to pull a shocker in the title game.
Key Stat
63.1 – The Blue Raiders possess one of the more balanced attacks in the nation. The offense averages a tick under 75.0 points per game, but it’s the defense that really sets this team apart in holding all opposition to just over 63.0 points per game. KenPom currently has the unit ranked as the No. 50 adjusted efficiency defense, and that unit will go a long way in deciding the outcome of this matchup. Marshall was able to shoot 45.3 percent and put 86 points on the board when it hosted MTSU, but still lost the game by double-digits due to 12 turnovers and allowing the Blue Raiders to covert at a 52.3 percent clip from the field. If Middle Tennessee State’s defense can take Jon Elmore out of the game, Marshall will likely be hard pressed to put a crooked number on the scoreboard.
Free College Basketball ATS Pick
The Thundering Herd’s defense is wretched as it is. It’s scary to think what it’s going to look like on Saturday night having just played three games in three days. Though it only gave up an average of 71.3 points in those contests, FAU and Old Dominion possess pitiful offenses. The starting five logged heavy minutes in the win over Louisiana Tech, so it’s safe to say they’ll have weary legs when they take to the hardwood to run with the Blue Raiders.
This has blowout city written all over it. MTSU was the odds on favorite to hoist the championship trophy at the end of the Conference USA tournament, and that’s exactly what’s going to go down in this one. Marshall could make it interesting early, but once the rigors of playing four games in four days sets in in the second half, it’ll be all she wrote. With most rebounds likely going the way of the Blue Raiders with it owning a huge advantage on the glass, I’d be weary of betting this one over. MTSU is going to be running clock a ton in the second half.
College Basketball Odds: Middle Tennessee State 85, Marshall 65
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