The Michigan State Spartans are on a horrid run of form right now with three straight losses to Nebraska, Wisconsin and Iowa. In all three games, they were heavy favorites, but on Saturday, they could find themselves as home underdogs against the Maryland Terrapins.
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HOW THE MARYLAND TERRAPINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The road hasn't been kind to Maryland this year, as the team was beaten at Michigan and was lucky to survive at Wisconsin in its two most recent games. In both cases though, Melo Trimble has been the make or break man. He hit the three that beat the Badgers at the buzzer, but he was also the man who went just 1-of-7 from the field against Michigan.
We have no doubt that this team can pick him up, but if you go under the assumption that the bigs are going to be contained by the Michigan State defense as is usually the case, it's going to be up to that backcourt to make the difference. Trimble is the type of man who can take over games all by himself, and he's had to shoulder a lot of the load this year for the Terrapins to make them a Top 10 team. Rasheed Sulaimon will have his say as well, but the big shots to separate a win from a loss will clearly come down to Trimble.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The biggest thing that's gone wrong for the Spartans is that their defense has really lacked of late. They've forced a total of just 21 turnovers in three games, and they aren't contesting shots the same way that Tom Izzo would want them to. Against a team like Maryland, it's going to be of utmost importance to lock down as much as possible, because the Terps are surely going to get their points.
We're also a little concerned about some of the players getting lost in the offense. The ball is virtually always in the hands of Denzel Valentine, as it should be. He could go off for a triple-double on any given night, and in his last two games, he's put up 47 points,13 boards and 11 assists combined.
However, Bryn Forbes has scored a total of just 17 points in those three games, 12 of which came against Wisconsin, and he's a really important piece to this puzzle for Sparty.
Defense will create offense though, and if Valentine doesn't have to score in the 20s and account for another dozen points via assists, it'll probably be a good sign for MSU.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
You get the feeling that at the end of the year, the Spartans are going to be just fine and will be back in the mix for the Final Four. However, at this point, they aren't playing well, and we think they're still ripe for th picking.
A lot of these games of late have been close, and though the shots have been falling, defensive stops just haven't been coming. If Trimble gets his chance to step up and make shots at the end of the game, he's going to do it more often than not, even against the best defenses in the nation. We just get the feeling that Trimble is going to win this game at the death like he did against the Badgers in what could be a classic Big Ten powerhouse battle.
Maryland 76, Michigan State 74
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