Michigan State looks nothing like the team that sat atop the national polls just a few weeks ago. A fourth straight loss would push them deeper in the Big Ten standings and could knock them out of the top 25 entirely.
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HOW THE MARYLAND TERRAPINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Maryland made fewer baskets, got outrebounded and was admittedly not as tough as Northwestern. But when things don’t go well, good teams find a way to win. And that’s what the Terps did on Tuesday, knocking off the pesky Wildcats. Should the Terrapins play as poorly on Saturday in East Lansing, things might not be so pretty.
Maryland lacked aggression Tuesday and settled for too many three-point shots, though terrific defense played by the Willdcats had something to do with that. The Terrapins earned the victory on the strength of their play on the defensive end of the court.
The Terps must be more aggressive against a Michigan State club that has lost its past three games and has recently been struggling to defend and stay out of foul trouble. Spartans’ coach Tom Izzo conceded that his team is having trouble adapting to the greater emphasis placed on hand-checking by officials this year.
And this should play right into what coach Mark Turgeon is asking of his team, which is to crack through the perimeter, draw fouls and take advantage of solid free-throw shooting. The Terrapins have the right man to lead the charge in Melo Trimble, the Big Ten’s preseason player of the year.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
It’s been a less than spectacular last few days for the Spartans, who were blown out at home by Iowa and failed to hold a lead in the final minute at Wisconsin. Michigan State dropped seven spots in the AP poll following those defeats. That makes the Maryland game incredibly important for Sparty and their tournament resume.
MSU allowed Wisconsin to shoot 36 free throws on Sunday and the Badgers responded by making 80 percent of their foul shots. Maryland is not going to miss their free throws if given the chance. The Terps shoot 76 percent from the line collectively and cannot be given as many opportunities as Wisconsin or Iowa.
Maryland has five players that average at least 10 points a game. With that being said, the Spartans might not be able to win if the game turns into a shootout. Maryland averages 79 points per game and just dropped a hundred on Ohio State last week.
The best idea for the Spartans is to limit Maryland’s fast break and force them into using as much of the shot clock as possible. The Terps shot just 25 percent from three-point range when they were defeated by Michigan over a week ago.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
The Terrapins can smell blood and will be circling the Spartans like sharks come Saturday. Following their only conference loss, Maryland responded with a pair of wins and took out some frustration on Ohio State last week by dropping triple digits on the Buckeyes. The Terps didn’t play their best Tuesday, but were able to come away with a win, which tells us a little bit about this team. The deadly combination of Trimble and Rasheed Sulaimon on the outside and Robert Carter and Diamond Stone on the inside, makes the Terrapins tough to defend. They aren’t deep and if Michigan State can get sets working on offense, forcing Maryland to expend energy playing defense, it takes away from their effectiveness. Some home cooking in the foul department wouldn’t hurt either. This game means a whole lot more for Michigan State after losing for the third straight time Wednesday and suddenly looks nothing like the top-ranked team it was earlier in the season. It’s hard to say this is a must-win game for Sparty, but this is a must win game for Sparty.
Michigan State 74, Maryland 69
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