The signature matchup in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge looked like it had the potential to be a 1 vs. 2 duel at the start of the year. Alas, the North Carolina Tar Heels have dipped just a bit, but the Maryland Terrapins are still one of the top teams in America. These two former ACC rivals know all about one another, but they'll clash in rival conferences on Saturday in a game which could go a long way towards determining the No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament in a few months.
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HOW THE MARYLAND TERRAPINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
This starting five is just really, really good for Maryland. Adding Rasheed Sulaimon brings another dimension to the roster, as he is a lethal three-point shooter who knows what it's like to play in Chapel Hill from his days with Duke.
Jake Layman, Diamond Stone, Robert Carter, Jared Nickens… these men are all capable of starting on most teams in America, and they can all score from anywhere on the court.
The real key to winning on Tuesday though, is going to be Melo Trimble.
Go back and look at some of the really big games the Terps won last year. He dropped 22, 24 and 17 in three games against Michigan State, 31 against Arizona State early in the season, 20 at Iowa… the list goes on and on.
Trimble is a legit NBA talent running this offense, and at times, he just has to put the ball in his hands and tell the rest of his talented teammates to get the heck out of the way. When he does that, he just has to be the best player on the court in isolation. The Tar Heels have the horses to stop him, but Trimble is the key. Maryland can't win or cover this one on the road if he has a bad game.
Just go back and look at last year's game against Ohio State as proof of that. Trimble scored just three points, and the Terrapins were crushed 80-56.
HOW THE NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
North Carolina actually hasn't covered a game in four straight, though it should be noted that its leader, Marcus Paige hasn't been on the court at all yet.
Paige vows to be back for this game against Maryland, and that will really make this starting five complete. Joel Berry II is a fine fill-in and a great bench player, but he isn't meant to be leading this team for the full 40 minutes like Paige is.
Size is going to be the key. The Terrapins aren't particularly big, and if North Carolina is going to win this one, it's going to have to wear them down. That what UNC didn't do against Northern Iowa in a loss on the road earlier this season, as the Panthers just kept finding ways to fight off every opportunity the Heels had to exert their dominance.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Trimble is awesome, and it wouldn't be a stunner if he won this game all by himself. However, more often than not, particularly here on the road in one of the most hostile environments in college basketball, North Carolina is going to be too much.
We just aren't sure how Maryland is countering when the Tar Heels go big with Justin Jackson, Kennedy Meeks, Brice Johnson and potentially even Isaiah Hicks on the court at the same time.
Expect to see North Carolina win the rebounding battle, and when that happens, Maryland will have to shoot its way to victory. Doing so at the Comcast Center is one thing. Doing it at the Dean Dome is something completely different.
North Carolina 83, Maryland 74
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