Both Maryland and Michigan State won handily on Friday, setting up a Big Ten tournament semifinal rematch. The Spartans won that game last year and defeated the Terrapins 74-65 in the only meeting this season. MSU is hot with wins in 11 of its last 12 games and has covered the spread every time.
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HOW THE MARYLAND TERRAPINS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Maryland entered the tournament on a bit of a downslide dropping four of its final six games, a difficult slide for a team that was once ranked No. 1 in the country. But the Terps held off Nebraska on Friday night and look to avenge last season’s semifinal round loss to Michigan State.
A tremendous starting five, led by Melo Trimble, guides Maryland. Beat out for Big Ten Player of the Year by Denzel Valentine, Trimble leads the starters, who all average in double figures, by scoring 14.5 points per game.
Coupled with Rasheed Sulaimon, the Terps have a strong backcourt. But the difference for them could be Diamond Stone. The center has improved his game mightily on both ends of the floor since the teams met in January.
Stone scored six points in that game and was a non-factor. Since, he’s reached double figures nine times in 11 games and poured in 23 Friday against Nebraska, his second-highest total of the season. He will have an edge over the Spartans down low and needs to attack with authority.
HOW THE MICHIGAN STATE SPARTANS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
The Spartans are the hottest team in the Big Ten and quite possibly the country heading into Saturday’s semifinal showdown with Maryland. The Spartans have won 11 of 12 and racked up their 10th straight double-digit victory, clobbering Ohio State 81-54 on Friday.
There’s plenty to be said about leadership and Sparty has three seniors directing the show. Led by conference player of the year Denzel Valentine, MSU has the most efficient offense in the country.
Michigan State closed the season ranked No. 1 in three-point accuracy, knocking down triples at a staggering 43.9 percent. Senior Bryn Forbes knocked down better than 50 percent of his threes during the year and averaged 15 points. There isn’t a lot of size on the roster, making the three-pointer a crucial weapon.
The best player in the Big Ten will be a terror for Maryland in so many ways. Valentine averages 19.6 points, 7.5 rebounds and 7.5 assists – mind boggling numbers even if he hadn’t been gimpy for part of the season.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
Michigan State is on a roll having won seven straight and 11 of its last 12 games. Led by Valentine, the top player in the conference, the Spartans won their last 10 games by at least 10 points and were rarely threatened. With so many blowouts we have to wonder what this team will do in a close game. The only loss during the current run came in overtime by a point at Purdue, and two losses prior to the streak were also by a point to Nebraska and Wisconsin. So, it appears as if the Spartans have little success in close games. Note to Maryland: try and keep the game close. And the Terps can do that if they stay out of foul trouble and get valuable minutes from the bench. Maryland has a starting five to that can match up against any in the country, but they need to be on the court.
Michigan State 81, Maryland 73
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