The stars align on Thursday to bring us Melo Trimble against Trevon Blueitt in the third game on the slate in Orlando. With the Maryland Terrapins going against the Xavier Musketeers in an evening tip-off we’ll get to see a surprisingly evenly matched 6-11 game that could be one of the more exciting contests of the first day, particularly if the two stars end up taking over the game for their respective teams.
This war on the floor will go down Thursday, March 16, 2017, at 6:50 p.m. ET at the Amway Center in Orlando, FL. The game will be televised live on TNT.
We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Thursday schedule.
Odds at BookMaker.eu
According to seeding—and spread—Maryland is the favorite in this 6-11 matchup, but this spread is pretty close, and rightfully so, as this is a prime pick for an upset.
BookMaker opened the spread at -2 in favor of the Terps who many feel are over-seeded.
While the stats don’t love the Terps, they do boast a very strong 14-7 road record and have been consistently able to win the games they’re supposed to win, avoiding bad losses and fairing reasonably well against the Top-100.
Maryland, however, has been a good team to bet against to cover the spread of late. They’ve covered just once in their last six games.
Xavier has a worse ATS on the season, but the Musketeers have covered four straight games including all three of their conference tournament battles. Though, just before that stretch, this team had failed to cover the spread in seven straight and 13 of 15 contests.
Key Stat
Maryland ranks rather poorly in the Ken Pom ratings, sitting at No. 45 on the list which, by pure numbers, makes the Terps more of a No. 11 seed than a No. 6 seed by pure stats.
Looking closer, the Musketeers are surprisingly ranked five spots ahead of Maryland in the ratings while the other six-seeds are about 20-points higher than the Terps on average.
Interestingly, there are seven double-digit seeded teams ranked ahead of Maryland and 18 different teams seeded as a No. 7 or worse with better marks.
Breaking down the numbers even further, Xavier grades out better than Maryland—albeit slightly in both cases—on offense and defense according to Ken Pom metrics.
Key Player
Watch out for Xavier’s Trevon Bluiett. He’s the floor general for this team and a scoring machine as a premium volume shooter. In short, he’s the reason that Xavier is even in the NCAA Tournament particularly after Edmond Sumner’s injury.
Blueitt leads the Musketeers in scoring with 18.1 PPG and second in rebounds, fourth in assists and is the leading shooter from beyond the arc.
When Xavier went down in six-straight games near the end of the regular season it is no coincidence that Blueitt missed a couple of those games, played injured in a couple more, leaving one early with an ankle sprain. In his last six games, he’s scored at least 15 in each and put up 21 or more in three of those games.
When he’s on the court, he’s a dependable scorer who will be counted on against a very respectable Maryland defense. He’ll get the matchup with Melo Trimble and he absolutely has to deliver a strong performance.
Free College Basketball ATS Picks
Upset Alert! When filling out your brackets and picking your upsets, here’s one that should be on your list; Xavier should beat Maryland on Thursday.
Trimble will be the best play on the court in this contest, but if Blueitt is fully healthy as he seems to be, he’s a close enough No. 2 to make this interesting, particularly with the team being a lot more dependable for Xavier than it is for Maryland as shown in the Ken Pom ratings.
The last look we had at Maryland showed them falling to Northwestern in the Big Ten Conference Tournament while Xavier nearly scratched out a win against Creighton. In this tourney, Creighton is a No. 6 seed while Northwestern is a No. 8.
The Musketeers had their late season struggles, but got back on track. This is an Xavier team that’s better than the seeding shows, that’s battle-tested and that’s overcome one of the nation’s toughest schedules to get where they are.
College Basketball Odds: Xavier 68, Maryland 65
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