Mid-major teams have been all the rave this year, as teams like the Monmouth Hawks have built unlikely resumes which could get them into the NCAA Tournament without their conference automatic bids. Part of what makes Monmouth's case so strong this year is because the MAAC has been top heavy. A loss to the Iona Gaels wouldn't be damaging to anyone's resume.
Still, Iona is trying to play its way into March Madness, knowing that it probably doesn't have a postseason home outside of the pay-to-play tourneys if it doesn't win this game. Monmouth would love nothing more than to squash those dreams and take the Selection Committee out of the equation.
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HOW THE IONA GAELS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Run, run and run some more. The Gaels aren't quite as strong offensively this year as they have been in the past, but they're still averaging a tick under 80 points per game. Getting at least 70 possessions is the dead minimum for Iona to have a shot in this game, knowing that its defense isn't good enough to hold the Hawks in the 60s in all likelihood for a second time this season.
Goodness knows there's no shortage of scorers on this team. A.J. English is seemingly a guaranteed 20+ points in this one, especially after he scored 29 on Fairfield on Sunday in the semifinals. Jordan Washington, Deyshonee Much and Isaiah Williams are all double-digit scorers on average as well.
It's the guard play which will be pivotal, though. Washington's damage is largely done in short spurts on the floor, but English and Much in particular aren't going to be getting much in the way of time on the bench in this game. We suspect these two must get to at least 40 points between them for the Gaels to have a shot at the mild upset.
HOW THE MONMOUTH HAWKS CAN COVER THE SPREAD
Monmouth became a much different team when Deon Jones got hurt in February. In his first game out of the fold, the Hawks were upset by this very same Iona team at home, and that started a stretch of games at the end of the regular season which were less than inspiring.
The Hawks kept winning though, and they've won their first two games here at the Times Union Center as well. They've done so with defense, keeping Fairfield and Rider down to an average of just 55.5 points per game. Now, Jones is back having played his first game on Saturday against Fairfield, and he could make a big difference in this game.
Monmouth's key is to keep the assist to turnover ratio significantly below one. Thus far in the MAAC Tournament, the Hawks have forced 36 turnovers against just 22 assists. Against Iona in February without Jones in the lineup, the Hawks allowed 16 assists against 18 turnovers. The 18 is a good number. The 16 isn't.
ANALYSIS AND ODDS PREDICTION
We've watched the MAAC Tournament closely, as we know the Selection Committee members have as well. The Hawks have almost seemed to intimidate the Stags and the Broncs en route to the MAAC Final, but we know they aren't going to be able to do the same with Iona.
These two teams have to be ready for a war. They don't like each other, and there's going to be a lot of pushing and shoving, and as a result, there are probably going to be a lot of big swings as well.
Given the choice of these two, we're going to take the slightly more desperate Gaels to get the job done and punch their ticket to the tourney. English is the best scorer on the court, and we think he's going to hit a game-winning shot at or near the gun to win it for Iona in a way only the madness of March can produce.
Iona 78, Monmouth 77
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Real-time spreads, totals, props and moneyline odds are all available by clicking here, so start betting with BookMaker today! The Iona Gaels and Monmouth Hawks will square off Monday, March 7, 2016, at 7:00 p.m. ET at the Times Union Center. The matchup will be televised live on ESPN.
