You can throw the records and stats out the window when these two collide, because that’s exactly what it is, a collision. One of the nastier rivalries in the ACC will take place on the final day of the regular season when the Miami Hurricanes look to avenge an earlier defeat to their in-state rival Florida State Seminoles. Both teams still have a shot at the double-bye in the conference tournament, so there’s something to play for besides bragging rights.
At 4 p.m. ET, tune into the ACC Network for live television coverage of this NCAA basketball game on Saturday, March 4, 2017, at the Donald L. Tucker Center. We'll have NCAA basketball odds at BookMaker.eu available for this and every game on the college basketball Sunday schedule.
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Both teams head into this matchup after losing during the week. The Hurricanes were feeling pretty good with wins over Virginia and Duke in the final two of a four-game winning streak. However Monday’s loss at Virginia Tech left Miami in a fifth-place tie with the Hokies, a full game behind the Seminoles. It also guaranteed the Canes would have a losing road record in conference play. Miami is 3-5 SU and 4-4 ATS in ACC away games and must beat Florida State in order to have any chance of finishing with a top four seed.
Florida State’s 9-3 start in league play has been overshadowed by their difficulties recently. The Noles lost at Duke on Tuesday, their third in five games, and dropped them into a precarious spot in the standings. The top four teams get a double-bye in the conference tournament and the Noles appeared to be a lock two weeks ago. Getting back home could be what guarantees them a high seed. FSU has yet to lose at home, going 17-0 SU and 11-3-1 ATS. The Noles are averaging nearly 92 points per game at home in ACC play and the over is 6-2.
Key Stat
The Seminoles like to score points and they’re pretty good at it. Averaging 83.6 points per game for the season, the Noles rank 16th in the nation and second in the ACC behind North Carolina. And they’re even better at the Tucker Center. In their 17 home games, the Noles are averaging over 92 points per game and all five of their 100-plus point games have come at home.
Sure, the stat was padded during the non-conference schedule, but FSU has been nearly effective at home during league play. In their eight home ACC games, the Noles are averaging 91.6 points and have twice hit the century mark, with both of those coming in the last three where they’re averaging a healthy 102.6 points per game. The over is 11-4 during FSU’s home schedule.
Last Meeting
Miami doesn’t lose at home too often, but the Canes were soundly beaten by the Seminoles in their own gym when the teams met at the beginning of last month. Miami lost for just the second time in 25 home contests and saw its three-game winning streak over the Seminoles end with a 75-57 setback.
Nothing worked offensively for Miami on that night. The Canes made just two of 11 three-pointers, and when the perimeter shots didn’t fall, they couldn’t find room inside against the bigger Noles. Leading scorer Davon Reed scored just 12 points on 5 of 11 shooting. Miami did succeed in holding FSU below its season scoring average, but that didn’t matter when they couldn’t find the bottom of the net.
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With plenty on the line for both clubs, expect this to be a tightly contested affair. Florida State has a big advantage in the size department and the Noles used that in the first game, on both ends of the floor. They consistently got the ball to Dwayne Bacon who either drove to the hoop or pulled up for a mid range jumper. Xavier Rathan-Mayes dissected the defense with his ability to fine the open player and the depth was too much for the Canes to overcome.
What makes the Noles so tough is their ability to play any style of game. They have the size with a pair of 7-footers, or they can play small-ball with XRM leading the show. It’s a matchup nightmare for opponents and has the Noles on the verge of matching the school record for ACC wins. Duke was able to exploit FSU in their second meeting and the Canes are hopeful they can do the same. The game will be closer, but the Noles have the firepower and depth.
College Basketball Odds: Florida State 80, Miami 74
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